As mentioned on my previous page, OAF was developed in the summer of 2002. Since I was attempting to design an algorithm that would objectively approximate how the polls evaluated teams at the end of a season, I did not think of using this "system" to predict outcomes until December of 2002. Since post season bowl games are typically held at a neutral site, concerns related to considering home field advantage could be ignored which is imperative since OAF is a ranking (and not a rating type of) system.

I learned about Kenneth Massey's comparison page (listed on the previous web page) and downloaded the rankings of all those systems for 2002. I have now exported the rankings of all those systems into an Excel spreadsheet and have analyzed how all of those systems have done since 2002. (Summaries for those years are contained below, and full pages, with rankings for each team in a bowl game, for each and every system, along with which bowl games which system correctly/incorrectly predicted, are on separate pages. These pages are quite large, and probably will take some time to download if you are really interested in seeing them).

As the table below summarizes, there are quite a few systems on that comparison page, and 38 of them are included in each of these ten years, so how well those systems have performed is summarized a little further down this page. In 2002, only 2 of the 78 systems had 18 right (OAF was one of them!), and that year is strange in the sense that 80% of the systems correctly chose the right team in 14 of the 28 games, but in 12 of the other 14, the correct team was selected in less than 20% of the games. (There were 9 games were all systems were unanimous in their selection, and 6 games went according to plan, and the other 3 must be considered as "upsets". There were 26 systems with 14 correct predictions, and a different 26 systems with 15 right, which is why the median came out as 14.5. The number in the parentheses are the counts for those totals.)

OAF correctly predicted 18 out of 28 games in each of the first three years it existed, which as it turns out, was outstanding in 2002, but only average in 2003 since that was the median number of correct predictions that year. In 2004, there were only 5 systems with more than 18 correct predictions, and 6 others with exactly 18 right. In 2005 OAF underperformed, as it was the first year it didn't achieve 18 correct (only 15-13 ), but it can back strong in 2006 with 22 right out of 32 games, leaving it as the 4th largest overall total of correct predictions of the 43 systems that have appeared on Massey's page from 2002-2008. 2007 was a little lackluster, with only 19 wins, but OAF responded by correctly picking 20 winners in 2008, which tied for 16th overall in 2008, and OAF hit the median total (17) in 2009. As of 2009, OAF was tied for the 4th highest total of correct selections from 2002-2009 (of those same 40 systems). OAF's performance in 2010 and 2011 has moved it down into 14th position, of the 38 teams listed below.

 Year LV Line # sys. Avg. # right MAX. Median MIN. 100% 0% > 80% < 20% > 50% 2002 15 78 14.6 18(2) 14.5(52) 11(2) 6 3 14 12 14 2003 19 97 17.8 21(6) 18(31) 14(4) 2 1 12 3 18 2004 15 99 15.8 22(1) 16(32) 11(1) 4 3 10 5 14 2005 17 104 15.654 21(1) 16(20) 13(5) 1 0 10 7 15 2006 23 99 20.555 24(1) 21(29) 15(1) 3 1 15 6 22 2007 24 116 19.354 28(1) 20(24) 12(2) 1 2 16 8 20 2008 22 109 17.03 26(1) 16.5(36) 12(1) 1 0 11 9 16 2009 17 121 17.15 24(1) 17(25) 13(3) 2 0 10 11 17 2010 24 129 20.81 26(1) 21(36) 16(2) 3 1 15 8 22 2011 25 126 22.16 29(1) 22(33) 18(2) 5 0 16 5 21

Here are the summaries for the previous years. (All the large data files that were used to construct the tables below can be found at: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.)

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2011. 1 29 RWP 0 28 1 27 RBA 2 26 KMV, TFG 7 25 ALB, CGV, CMV, GRR, RTR, OMY 11 24 Many! 26 23 More Still! 33 22 28 21 12 20 3 19 2 18 126

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2010. 1 26 BDF 0 25 0 24 16 23 Many! 27 22 More still! 36 21 23 20 17 19 6 18 1 17 2 16 129

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2009. 24 1 PBI 23 1 KLK 22 2 KAM, PFZ 21 6 ARG, DP, MKV,TRX, GRL, KMV 20 9 CPA,DES, GM,GUN, MAR,MAU ,MRS,WLK, CTW 19 10 ACR, BIL, CPR,DKC, HOW,IMS, RWP,RT, SLN,MRK 18 20 17 25 16 17 15 15 14 12 13 3

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2008. 26 1 NUT 25 0 24 5 BAS, CPA, DUN, LAW MOR 23 1 KAM 22 4 DEZ, BRN, ERD, PIG 21 4 ACR, MKV, PFZ, STH 20 3 ASH, OAF, RTB 19 8 18 9 17 15 16 21 15 23 14 11 13 3 12 1

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2007 1 28 KAM 0 25-27 2 24 KLK,TRX 8 23 CPA,FEI, LAW,MKV ,PFZ,REI, SLT,SQ 7 22 BEM,BOB ,DP,RTH, SAU,SOL, WEL 18 21 24 20 15 19 17 18 13 17 3 16 5 15 1 14 0 13 2 12

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2006. 1 24 ARG 9 23 WLK,HOW, PSR,WLF, RW,CNF, FEI,MAA, Avg.Rank 16 22 CLA, D1A, COF,IMS, MAS,ASH, DOL,MAT, RTR,BPI, RPI,ROH, GBE,MEA, MOR,OAF 29 21 19 20 17 19 6 18 1 17 1 15

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2005. 1 21 DWI 1 20 CPA 2 19 TRX,PFZ 7 18 COF,IMS, BAS,TOY, GRS,BDF, CPR 20 17 20 16 26 15 22 14 5 13

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2004 1 22 MCK 0 21 2 20 ACU,BAS 2 19 DWI,CMV 7 18 COF,DAN, KEE,KLK, CGV,OAF, COL 14 17 32 16 22 15 13 14 4 13 1 12 1 11

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2003 6 21 WAT,DOL, MCK,MAR, KGR,KAM 7 20 HER,COF, GRN,SEL, BIL,LAZ, BRN 18 19 31 18 16 17 10 16 5 15 4 14

 # with X wins X Systems with that many wins in 2002 2 18 OAF, KEL 2 17 CRD,RAN 12 16 26 15 26 14 7 13 1 12 2 11

(KEL and RAN only appear on Massey's rating page in 2002.)

Below is the table for all 37 entries that appear on Kenneth Massey's comparison page from 2002 to the present (and the "average" of all systems present"):
(Underlining implies one of the top totals that year, appearing in bold implies close to the top. The Las Vegas line had 201 right during these ten years.)
An alphabetical list (by rating system acronym) of all systems appearing on Massey's pre-bowl comparison rating pages can be found directly beneath the table below.

 System name as listed Acronym Total 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 on compare.htm Kambour KAM 202 13 21 16 15 19 28 23 22 22 23 PerformanZ PFZ 196 15 18 15 19 20 23 21 22 20 23 Coffey COF 193 14 20 18 18 22 21 18 18 22 22 Claassen CLA 191 16 18 16 17 22 20 19 18 23 22 Howell HOW 189 16 18 15 16 23 20 16 19 23 23 Dolphin DOL 188 15 21 17 17 22 21 17 17 18 23 Marsee MAR 188 14 21 16 17 19 20 15 20 22 24 Moore MOR 187 15 17 15 15 22 17 24 18 23 21 Born BRN 186 14 20 14 17 21 20 22 18 21 19 Whitlock WLK 185 14 18 16 14 23 21 15 20 21 23 McCormick MCK 184 16 21 22 16 20 20 15 14 19 21 Bassett BAS 184 11 18 20 18 18 19 24 14 21 21 Pigskin PIG 183 13 19 16 17 17 17 22 18 21 23 Overtake&Feedback OAF 182 18 18 18 15 22 19 20 17 16 19 Maurer MAU 181 13 19 17 15 20 17 17 20 21 22 Wilson WIL 180 15 18 16 15 20 21 15 17 21 22 Sagarin SAG 180 14 19 15 15 20 21 17 15 21 24 Rothman RTH 180 14 18 15 15 19 22 18 15 20 23 Bihl BIH 180 15 19 15 14 20 18 18 16 22 23 Ashburn ASH 179 14 17 15 14 22 19 20 16 20 22 DeSimone DES 178 15 17 17 17 18 17 12 20 21 24 Solecismic SOL 178 15 17 16 15 19 22 15 15 21 23 Avg. Rank All Sys. Avg.Rank 178 14 18 14 15 23 20 16 16 21 21 Billingsley BIL 178 14 20 17 17 20 16 15 19 22 18 Self SEL 178 14 20 16 14 18 21 18 16 19 22 Colley COL 177 16 14 18 16 21 21 16 13 20 22 Anderson AND 177 15 14 16 14 21 21 16 18 20 22 Sagarin Elo SE 177 14 18 13 16 20 20 15 17 21 23 Massey MAS 177 14 19 15 15 22 18 16 18 18 22 Mark MRK 177 15 18 16 16 20 17 15 19 20 21 Welch WEL 177 15 15 16 16 22 22 15 15 19 22 Mease MEA 176 16 16 16 16 22 18 17 15 19 21 CSL CSL 175 16 17 15 16 21 17 15 16 22 20 MJS Standings MJS 175 15 15 16 17 21 19 15 14 22 21 Sorenson SOR 175 14 18 15 15 20 20 17 15 19 22 Wobus WOB 175 16 18 14 15 21 18 16 15 20 22 Massey BCS MB 173 14 19 15 14 19 20 15 17 20 20 Wolfe WOL 169 15 17 12 16 21 18 14 16 19 21

 Sys. Abrv. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total games Pct. # games 28 28 28 28 32 32 34 34 35 35 314 Overall Massey Average 14 18 14 15 23 20 16 16 21 21 178 314 56.69 AB3 13 21 34 60 56.67 ABC 14 21 19 14 15 21 21 125 230 54.35 ACR 21 19 23 20 83 138 60.14 ACU 20 17 19 19 18 18 20 22 153 258 59.30 ALB 17 19 25 61 104 58.65 ALD 18 18 34 52.94 AND 15 14 16 14 21 21 16 18 20 22 177 314 56.37 ARG 15 19 16 16 24 15 21 23 22 171 282 60.64 ARM 14 18 17 16 21 16 102 178 57.30 ASH 14 17 15 14 22 19 20 14 20 22 177 314 56.37 AUS 22 22 35 62.86 BAS 11 18 20 18 18 19 24 21 21 170 280 60.71 BCD 17 17 14 19 18 14 22 121 217 55.76 BCM 15 15 30 56 53.57 BCS 17 14 15 21 18 15 100 182 54.95 BD 16 13 29 56 51.79 BDF 18 19 15 19 18 26 21 136 230 59.13 BEM 23 22 45 64 70.31 BIH 15 19 15 14 20 18 18 16 20 23 178 314 56.69 BIL 14 20 17 17 20 16 15 19 22 18 178 314 56.69 BMC 16 19 19 15 20 89 155 57.42 BNM 22 22 35 62.86 BOB 18 13 17 20 22 19 17 22 20 168 286 58.74 BPI 22 20 19 18 23 21 123 202 60.89 BRN 14 20 14 17 21 20 22 18 21 19 186 314 59.24 BSR 18 18 32 56.25 BSS 16 16 19 21 72 138 52.17 BTS 22 22 35 62.86 CA 17 16 14 47 100 47.00 CFN 23 15 18 21 77 135 57.04 CGV 19 18 16 19 17 18 22 25 154 252 61.11 CJB 23 23 35 65.71 CLA 16 18 16 17 22 20 19 18 23 22 191 314 60.83 CMV 19 17 19 19 18 14 17 25 148 258 57.36 COF 14 20 18 18 22 21 18 18 22 22 193 314 61.46 COL 16 14 18 16 21 21 16 13 20 22 177 314 56.37 COV 18 18 34 52.94 CPA 15 18 15 20 23 24 20 21 24 180 282 63.83 CPR 14 18 17 18 18 16 19 19 20 159 282 56.38 CRD 17 16 14 47 84 55.95 CSL 16 17 15 16 21 17 15 16 22 20 175 314 55.73 CTN 16 13 29 56 51.79 CTW 20 22 22 64 104 61.54 CUR 15 15 30 56 53.57 D1A 16 14 22 20 14 17 21 24 148 258 57.36 DAN 16 18 18 16 68 112 60.71 DCF 14 14 28 50.00 DCI 16 21 21 58 104 55.77 DC2 17 23 40 69 57.97 DEF 15 15 34 44.12 DES 15 17 17 17 18 17 12 20 21 24 178 314 56.69 DEV 19 19 32 59.38 DEZ 22 18 22 21 83 138 60.14 DKC 17 16 12 14 19 19 97 191 50.79 DOK 19 16 14 20 19 15 17 22 23 165 286 57.69 DOL 15 21 17 17 22 21 17 17 18 23 188 314 59.87 DP 19 15 14 21 22 19 21 22 22 175 286 61.19 DUN 14 17 17 19 18 24 16 23 24 172 314 54.78 DWI 15 18 19 21 21 18 17 22 21 172 280 61.43 ECK 14 14 16 16 21 81 144 56.25 EL 19 14 33 66 50.00 ER 12 15 14 17 21 20 16 20 135 245 55.10 ERD 15 18 14 17 19 20 22 125 210 59.52 FEI 23 23 16 17 21 23 123 202 60.89 FIT 20 17 17 54 98 55.10 FLY 15 17 32 56 57.14 FMG 14 18 17 14 16 19 20 118 216 54.63 GBE 16 15 23 19 13 16 20 23 145 258 56.20 GFM 14 14 34 41.18 GM 16 14 20 20 16 20 106 188 56.38 GMP 18 15 13 13 19 78 167 46.71 GRL 21 18 19 58 104 55.77 GRM 16 16 28 57.14 GRN 13 20 14 14 20 19 17 14 131 244 53.69 GRR 25 25 35 71.43 GRS 13 16 17 18 19 16 19 22 140 248 56.45 GTF 14 14 34 41.18 GUN 21 15 20 21 77 135 57.04 GUP 18 14 16 21 69 116 59.48 HAN 20 20 32 62.50 HAT 16 14 22 21 73 132 55.30 HAW 14 19 20 14 67 126 53.17 HEN 19 23 42 67 62.69 HER 15 20 14 14 63 112 56.25 HKB 17 17 24 58 103 56.31 HLG 21 24 45 70 64.29 HNL 21 23 44 70 62.86 HNM 14 14 28 50.00 HOL 15 18 33 56 58.93 HOW 16 18 15 16 23 20 16 19 23 23 189 314 60.19 HSF 17 17 28 60.71 HUB 15 16 31 56 55.36 IMS 15 18 14 18 22 18 15 19 139 244 56.97 IPB 16 16 34 47.06 ISR 21 16 15 18 21 91 170 53.53 JNJ 18 18 35 51.43 JNK 16 15 21 19 16 18 21 21 147 258 56.98 JON 17 17 28 60.71 KAM 13 21 16 15 19 28 23 22 22 23 202 314 64.33 KEE 18 14 21 20 19 18 21 22 153 258 59.30 KEL 18 16 15 16 21 21 107 198 54.04 KEN 20 20 35 57.14 KGR 15 21 21 57 88 64.77 KIS 14 16 30 56 53.57 KKM 16 16 34 47.06 KLK 18 15 20 24 19 23 21 24 164 258 63.57 KMV 21 21 26 68 104 65.38 KNT 17 22 22 61 104 58.65 KPK 19 20 39 70 55.71 KR 16 16 28 57.14 KRA 21 15 17 16 21 22 112 202 55.45 LAU 22 22 35 62.86 LAW 16 14 21 23 24 17 22 23 160 258 62.02 LAZ 20 16 16 21 20 18 17 22 150 251 59.76 LMG 19 19 32 59.38 LYD 18 21 20 59 92 64.13 MAA 15 15 17 23 19 17 15 20 23 164 286 57.34 MAO 15 15 34 44.12 MAR 14 21 16 17 19 20 15 20 22 24 188 314 59.87 MAS 14 19 15 15 22 18 16 18 18 22 177 314 56.37 MAT 15 19 15 14 22 85 144 59.03 MAU 13 19 17 15 20 17 17 20 21 22 181 314 57.64 MAY 18 18 32 56.25 MB 14 19 15 14 19 20 15 17 20 20 173 314 55.10 MCK 16 21 22 16 20 20 15 14 19 21 184 314 58.60 MEA 16 16 16 16 22 18 17 15 19 21 176 314 56.05 MGN 21 16 21 21 79 134 58.96 MGY 14 19 17 50 90 55.56 MIC 14 18 32 56 57.14 MJS 15 15 16 17 21 19 15 14 22 21 175 314 55.73 MKV 19 14 14 23 21 21 112 184 60.87 MMY 15 18 16 15 21 85 144 59.03 MOR 15 17 15 15 22 17 24 18 23 21 187 314 59.55 MRK 15 18 16 16 20 17 15 19 20 21 177 314 56.37 MRS 20 22 42 69 60.87 MTN 17 13 14 44 90 48.89 MUE 16 16 28 57.14 NOA 16 16 35 45.71 NOL 15 14 17 20 20 86 170 50.59 NOR 17 17 28 60.71 NUT 17 13 21 26 18 19 21 135 226 59.73 NYT 16 18 34 56 60.71 OAF 18 18 18 15 22 19 20 17 16 19 182 314 57.96 OMY 17 23 25 65 104 62.50 ONV 14 22 24 60 104 57.69 OSC 21 21 35 60.00 PAY 17 22 21 60 104 57.69 PBI 18 24 21 63 103 61.17 PFZ 15 18 15 19 20 23 21 22 20 23 196 314 62.42 PGH 16 15 20 21 72 138 52.17 PIG 13 19 16 17 17 17 22 18 21 23 183 314 58.28 PIR 23 23 35 65.71 PKL 15 15 32 46.88 PPP 21 23 44 70 62.86 PR 14 18 12 13 21 78 161 48.45 PRZ 14 19 33 56 58.93 PSR 16 17 17 23 20 17 17 21 22 170 286 59.44 PTS 22 21 43 70 61.43 PUH 20 20 32 62.50 RAG 15 16 31 56 55.36 RAN 17 17 28 60.71 RBA 20 27 47 70 67.14 REI 16 15 21 23 17 24 116 189 61.38 REN 19 19 32 59.38 REW 20 15 13 19 23 90 170 52.94 RFL 21 21 16 14 22 94 167 56.29 RGB 20 21 41 70 58.57 RKR 17 17 32 53.13 RM 16 16 16 48 84 57.14 ROG 22 22 44 70 62.86 ROH 16 22 38 60 63.33 RPI 16 22 17 55 120 45.83 RSE 15 17 16 15 21 17 101 176 57.39 RT 19 23 23 65 104 62.50 RTB 20 15 20 23 78 138 56.52 RTH 14 18 15 15 19 22 18 15 20 23 179 314 57.01 RTR 15 17 22 15 15 23 25 132 226 58.41 RUD 14 18 14 15 21 19 16 22 23 162 280 57.86 RW 23 21 15 59 98 60.20 RWL 17 17 28 60.71 RWP 14 23 29 66 104 63.46 RYN 16 23 22 61 104 58.65 S&P 21 21 35 60.00 SAG 14 19 15 15 20 21 17 15 21 24 181 314 57.64 SAU 13 19 16 13 22 17 17 22 139 247 56.28 SCH 15 18 21 22 76 132 57.58 SCP 16 16 28 57.14 SD 19 20 18 57 94 60.64 SE 14 18 13 16 20 20 15 17 21 23 177 314 56.37 SEL 14 20 16 14 18 21 18 16 19 22 178 314 56.69 SFX 17 20 37 69 53.62 SLN 21 17 17 19 21 95 167 56.89 SLT 17 17 16 18 23 91 148 61.49 SMT 21 21 35 60.00 SNS 14 17 20 51 103 49.51 SOL 15 17 16 15 19 22 15 15 21 23 178 314 56.69 SOR 14 18 15 15 20 20 17 15 19 22 175 314 55.73 SP 21 19 19 22 23 104 170 61.18 SPR 15 19 34 60 56.67 SPT 15 20 35 88 39.77 SQ 13 20 23 56 92 60.87 STH 21 21 17 19 22 100 170 58.82 STN 21 22 43 70 61.43 STU 20 20 40 70 57.14 SUN 14 18 17 23 72 119 60.50 SWT 14 14 28 50.00 TAT 13 13 28 46.43 TFG 21 26 47 70 67.14 TMR 18 22 40 70 57.14 TOL 16 16 34 47.06 TOY 18 18 28 64.29 TR 14 20 14 14 21 21 104 196 53.06 TRX 15 19 21 24 16 21 23 139 223 62.33 TSR 16 18 15 17 21 20 107 176 60.80 TSW 15 19 11 14 18 15 92 178 51.69 TUB 17 17 34 50.00 UCS 17 15 18 20 70 123 56.91 VRN 16 20 22 58 104 55.77 WAS 18 23 25 66 104 63.46 WAT 21 21 28 75.00 WEL 15 15 16 16 22 22 15 15 19 22 177 314 56.37 WIL 15 18 16 15 20 21 15 17 21 22 180 314 57.32 WIS 19 20 39 64 60.94 WLK 14 18 16 14 23 21 15 20 21 23 185 314 58.92 WOB 16 18 14 15 21 18 16 15 20 22 175 314 55.73 WOL 15 17 12 16 21 18 14 16 19 21 169 314 53.82 WTS 13 21 34 60 56.67 XWP 22 23 45 70 64.29 YEA 16 15 31 56 55.36 YL 11 18 29 56 51.79 LV Line 15 19 15 17 23 24 22 17 24 25 201 314 64.01 Mean 14.6 17.8 15.8 15.7 20.6 19.4 17 17.1 20.8 22.2 180.9 314 57.61