The Overtake and Feedback (OAF) algorithm "home page"
The page that lists the final rankings/ratings when the Overtake and Feedback algorithm (OAF) is applied to previous college football season's can be found here. This specifics of this algorithm are spelled out in the 2004 February issue of Dr. Dobb's Journal. (A quick summary of the mechanics of this can be found here.) How well OAF has performed, in comparison to the seven computer rating systems (that were part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) in 2003) when predicting bowl games, can be found below. (Here are the most recent Ratings using OAF.)
This algorithm was "created" in July and August of 2002, and seems to capture a team's level of success during the year more than measuring its relative strength against the competition, which is probably why it correlates fairly well with the AP and coaches' year end polls. It was designed with that effect in mind in an attempt to quantitatively evaluate who had the best season versus attempting to determine which team is the best. An undefeated team that only defeats weaker competition will not be ranked too highly at the end of the season, e.g. Tulane was 12-0 in 1998, but only finished ranked #25 by the OAF algorithm. In some respect, strength of schedule factors in naturally during the application of the OAF algorithm, even though there is no value directly computed and used in the algorithm that measures how tough a team's opponents were that year...
OAF - Overtake and Feedback WC - Wes Colley JS - Jeff Sagarin
A&H - Jeff Anderson and Chris Hester KM - Kenneth Massey PW - Peter Wolfe
RB - Richard Billingsley LV - Las Vegas Line
| OAF | A&H | RB | WC | KM | JS | PW | LV | * | * | |
| Wins in 2002 (15 games all agreed, a 10-5 record; 28 games total) | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2003 (10 games all agreed, an 8-2 record; 28 games total) | 18 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 19 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2004 (12 games all agreed, a 9-3 record; 28 games total) | 18 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2005 (12 games all agreed, a 7-5 record; 28 games total) | 15 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2006(15 games all agreed, a 12-3 record; 32 games total) | 22 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 23 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2007(13 games all agreed, an 8-5 record; 32 games total) | 19 | 21 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 24 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Wins in 2008 (20 games all agreed, an 8-12 record; 34 games total) | 20 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 22 | All Picks |
All Ranks |
| Overall (210 bowl games) 2002 - 2008 |
130 | 117 | 119 | 122 | 119 | 121 | 103 | 135 |
* Ranks and Picks for the rating system published in the NY Times are included in 2002-2003, since that system was part of the BCS formula through 2004, and it also appeared in Kenneth Massey's Comparison page (where more systems can be found), and the final, pre-bowl top 25 from that paper provided the partial selections in 2004. (It is no longer included in those two sets of pages.) I have also compiled an analysis of all such systems posted on Massey's page, with regards to the bowl games played after the 2002 season to the present. Those results can be found here. A small summary from those results is posted below. (More about each system might be found at the web page linked to each system's full name that appears near the top of Kenneth's page.) The system developed by Kambour has a 4 game lead over PerformanZ and Coffey's systems. (As seen above, the Las Vegas line also selected 135 winners, and the next highest total after 128 is 125, appearing twice.)
|
System name as listed |
Acronym |
Total |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
|
on compare.htm |
|||||||||
|
Kambour |
KAM |
135 |
13 |
21 |
16 |
15 | 19 | 28 | 23 |
|
PerformanZ |
PFZ |
131 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
19 | 20 | 23 | 21 |
|
Coffey |
COF |
131 |
14 |
20 |
18 |
16 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
|
Dolphin |
DOL |
130 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
17 | 22 | 21 | 17 |
|
McCormick |
MCK |
130 |
16 |
21 |
22 |
16 | 20 | 20 | 15 |
|
Overtake & Feedback |
OAF |
130 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
15 | 22 | 19 | 20 |
|
Dwiggins |
DWI |
129 |
15 |
18 |
19 |
21 | 21 | 18 | 17 |
| Claassen | CLA | 128 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
|
Bassett |
BAS | 128 | 11 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
|
Born |
BRN |
128 |
14 |
20 |
14 |
17 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
(In 2003, I incorrectly copied several ratings from Massey's comparison page, affecting one prediction for each of three systems, so I have placed those corrections on a separate error page to not disturb the time stamp on the "All Ranks" pages above, for validation purposes. The "All Picks" pages have the corrected selections.)
Back to Prof. Trono's Home page. (This page last modified January 16, 2009 .)