The Overtake and Feedback (OAF) algorithm "home page"
The page that lists the final rankings/ratings when the Overtake and Feedback algorithm (OAF) is applied to previous college football season's can be found here. This specifics of this algorithm are spelled out in the 2004 February issue of Dr. Dobb's Journal. (A quick summary of the mechanics of this can be found here.) How well OAF has performed, in comparison to the six computer rating systems (that are part of the BCS, i.e. the Bowl Championship Series) when predicting bowl games, can be found below. (Here are the most recent Ratings using OAF.) In the last 10 years, four of the six systems have correctly predicted 177 (or 178) games, with one system behind that performance level, and one above it - and just below OAF's total: 182.
OAF - Overtake and Feedback WC - Wes Colley JS - Jeff Sagarin
A&H - Jeff Anderson and Chris Hester KM - Kenneth Massey PW - Peter Wolfe
RB - Richard Billingsley LV - Las Vegas Line
OAF | A&H | RB | WC | KM | JS | PW | LV | |
Wins in 2002 (28 games total) | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
Wins in 2003 (28 games total) | 18 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 19 |
Wins in 2004 (28 games total) | 18 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 15 |
Wins in 2005 (28 games total) | 15 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
Wins in 2006 (32 games total) | 22 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
Wins in 2007 (32 games total) | 19 | 21 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 24 |
Wins in 2008 (34 games total) | 20 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 22 |
Wins in 2009 (34 games total) | 17 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
Wins in 2010 (35 games total) | 16 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 24 |
Wins in 2011 (35 games total) | 19 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 25 |
2002-2011 (314 bowl games) | 182 | 177 | 178 | 177 | 177 | 181 | 169 | 201 |
Prediction results for all major, college football bowl games can be found here, for all the systems that have appeared on Kenneth Massey's compare web page: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.html. A small summary of those results, from the most accurate systems, is posted below. (More about each specific system can be found at the web page linked to each system's full name that appears near the top of Kenneth's comparison page.) The system developed by Kambour has a 6 game lead over the PerformanZ system, and the next best systems have 189 or fewer wins. (As seen above, the Las Vegas line selected 201 winners.) 38 systems have had their ratings listed Massey's page over the past 10 years, and of those 38, 21 have correctly predicted between 175 and 180 games correctly: 2 have fewer correct predictions, and 15 have earned higher totals, including the top four below.
compare.html |
Acronym |
Total |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
Kambour |
KAM |
202 |
13 |
21 |
16 |
15 | 19 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
PerformanZ |
PFZ |
196 |
15 |
18 |
15 |
19 | 20 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 23 |
Coffey |
COF |
193 |
14 |
20 |
18 |
16 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
Claassen | CLA | 191 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 23 | 22 |
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