Bowl Game predictions page

As mentioned on my previous page, OAF was developed in the summer of 2002. Since I was attempting to design an algorithm that would objectively approximate how the polls evaluated teams at the end of a season, I did not think of using this "system" to predict outcomes until December of 2002. Since post season bowl games are typically held at a neutral site, concerns related to considering home field advantage could be ignored which is imperative since OAF is a ranking (and not a rating type of) system.

I learned about Kenneth Massey's comparison page (listed on the previous web page) and downloaded the rankings of all those systems for 2002. I have now exported the rankings of all those systems into an Excel spreadsheet and have analyzed how all of those systems have done since 2002. (Summaries for those years are contained below, and full pages, with rankings for each team in a bowl game, for each and every system, along with which bowl games which system correctly/incorrectly predicted, are on separate pages. These pages are quite large, and probably will take some time to download if you are really interested in seeing them).

As the table below summarizes, there are quite a few systems on that comparison page, and 38 of them are included in each of these ten years, so how well those systems have performed is summarized a little further down this page. In 2002, only 2 of the 78 systems had 18 right (OAF was one of them!), and that year is strange in the sense that 80% of the systems correctly chose the right team in 14 of the 28 games, but in 12 of the other 14, the correct team was selected in less than 20% of the games. (There were 9 games were all systems were unanimous in their selection, and 6 games went according to plan, and the other 3 must be considered as "upsets". There were 26 systems with 14 correct predictions, and a different 26 systems with 15 right, which is why the median came out as 14.5. The number in the parentheses are the counts for those totals.)

OAF correctly predicted 18 out of 28 games in each of the first three years it existed, which as it turns out, was outstanding in 2002, but only average in 2003 since that was the median number of correct predictions that year. In 2004, there were only 5 systems with more than 18 correct predictions, and 6 others with exactly 18 right. In 2005 OAF underperformed, as it was the first year it didn't achieve 18 correct (only 15-13 ), but it can back strong in 2006 with 22 right out of 32 games, leaving it as the 4th largest overall total of correct predictions of the 43 systems that have appeared on Massey's page from 2002-2008. 2007 was a little lackluster, with only 19 wins, but OAF responded by correctly picking 20 winners in 2008, which tied for 16th overall in 2008, and OAF hit the median total (17) in 2009. As of 2009, OAF was tied for the 4th highest total of correct selections from 2002-2009 (of those same 40 systems). OAF's performance in 2010 and 2011 has moved it down into 14th position, of the 38 teams listed below.

Here are the summaries for the previous years. (All the large data files that were used to construct the tables below can be found at: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011.)

Below is the table for all 37 entries that appear on Kenneth Massey's comparison page from 2002 to the present (and the "average" of all systems present"):
(Underlining implies one of the top totals that year, appearing in bold implies close to the top. The Las Vegas line had 201 right during these ten years.)
An alphabetical list (by rating system acronym) of all systems appearing on Massey's pre-bowl comparison rating pages can be found directly beneath the table below.

System name as listed	Acronym	Total	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
on compare.htm
Kambour	KAM	202	13	21	16	15	19	28	23	22	22	23
PerformanZ	PFZ	196	15	18	15	19	20	23	21	22	20	23
Coffey	COF	193	14	20	18	18	22	21	18	18	22	22
Claassen	CLA	191	16	18	16	17	22	20	19	18	23	22
Howell	HOW	189	16	18	15	16	23	20	16	19	23	23
Dolphin	DOL	188	15	21	17	17	22	21	17	17	18	23
Marsee	MAR	188	14	21	16	17	19	20	15	20	22	24
Moore	MOR	187	15	17	15	15	22	17	24	18	23	21
Born	BRN	186	14	20	14	17	21	20	22	18	21	19
Whitlock	WLK	185	14	18	16	14	23	21	15	20	21	23
McCormick	MCK	184	16	21	22	16	20	20	15	14	19	21
Bassett	BAS	184	11	18	20	18	18	19	24	14	21	21
Pigskin	PIG	183	13	19	16	17	17	17	22	18	21	23
Overtake&Feedback	OAF	182	18	18	18	15	22	19	20	17	16	19
Maurer	MAU	181	13	19	17	15	20	17	17	20	21	22
Wilson	WIL	180	15	18	16	15	20	21	15	17	21	22
Sagarin	SAG	180	14	19	15	15	20	21	17	15	21	24
Rothman	RTH	180	14	18	15	15	19	22	18	15	20	23
Bihl	BIH	180	15	19	15	14	20	18	18	16	22	23
Ashburn	ASH	179	14	17	15	14	22	19	20	16	20	22
DeSimone	DES	178	15	17	17	17	18	17	12	20	21	24
Solecismic	SOL	178	15	17	16	15	19	22	15	15	21	23
Avg. Rank All Sys.	Avg.Rank	178	14	18	14	15	23	20	16	16	21	21
Billingsley	BIL	178	14	20	17	17	20	16	15	19	22	18
Self	SEL	178	14	20	16	14	18	21	18	16	19	22
Colley	COL	177	16	14	18	16	21	21	16	13	20	22
Anderson	AND	177	15	14	16	14	21	21	16	18	20	22
Sagarin Elo	SE	177	14	18	13	16	20	20	15	17	21	23
Massey	MAS	177	14	19	15	15	22	18	16	18	18	22
Mark	MRK	177	15	18	16	16	20	17	15	19	20	21
Welch	WEL	177	15	15	16	16	22	22	15	15	19	22
Mease	MEA	176	16	16	16	16	22	18	17	15	19	21
CSL	CSL	175	16	17	15	16	21	17	15	16	22	20
MJS Standings	MJS	175	15	15	16	17	21	19	15	14	22	21
Sorenson	SOR	175	14	18	15	15	20	20	17	15	19	22
Wobus	WOB	175	16	18	14	15	21	18	16	15	20	22
Massey BCS	MB	173	14	19	15	14	19	20	15	17	20	20
Wolfe	WOL	169	15	17	12	16	21	18	14	16	19	21

Sys. Abrv.	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Total	games	Pct.
# games	28	28	28	28	32	32	34	34	35	35	314
Overall Massey Average	14	18	14	15	23	20	16	16	21	21	178	314	56.69
AB3				13	21						34	60	56.67
ABC				14	21	19	14	15	21	21	125	230	54.35
ACR							21	19	23	20	83	138	60.14
ACU			20	17	19	19	18	18	20	22	153	258	59.30
ALB								17	19	25	61	104	58.65
ALD								18			18	34	52.94
AND	15	14	16	14	21	21	16	18	20	22	177	314	56.37
ARG	15	19	16	16	24		15	21	23	22	171	282	60.64
ARM	14	18	17	16	21			16			102	178	57.30
ASH	14	17	15	14	22	19	20	14	20	22	177	314	56.37
AUS									22		22	35	62.86
BAS	11	18	20	18	18	19	24		21	21	170	280	60.71
BCD		17	17	14	19	18	14		22		121	217	55.76
BCM			15	15							30	56	53.57
BCS		17	14	15	21	18	15				100	182	54.95
BD		16	13								29	56	51.79
BDF				18	19	15	19	18	26	21	136	230	59.13
BEM					23	22					45	64	70.31
BIH	15	19	15	14	20	18	18	16	20	23	178	314	56.69
BIL	14	20	17	17	20	16	15	19	22	18	178	314	56.69
BMC	16	19			19	15			20		89	155	57.42
BNM										22	22	35	62.86
BOB		18	13	17	20	22	19	17	22	20	168	286	58.74
BPI					22	20	19	18	23	21	123	202	60.89
BRN	14	20	14	17	21	20	22	18	21	19	186	314	59.24
BSR						18					18	32	56.25
BSS							16	16	19	21	72	138	52.17
BTS										22	22	35	62.86
CA						17	16	14			47	100	47.00
CFN					23		15	18	21		77	135	57.04
CGV		19	18	16	19	17		18	22	25	154	252	61.11
CJB										23	23	35	65.71
CLA	16	18	16	17	22	20	19	18	23	22	191	314	60.83
CMV			19	17	19	19	18	14	17	25	148	258	57.36
COF	14	20	18	18	22	21	18	18	22	22	193	314	61.46
COL	16	14	18	16	21	21	16	13	20	22	177	314	56.37
COV								18			18	34	52.94
CPA	15	18	15	20		23	24	20	21	24	180	282	63.83
CPR	14	18	17	18		18	16	19	19	20	159	282	56.38
CRD	17	16	14								47	84	55.95
CSL	16	17	15	16	21	17	15	16	22	20	175	314	55.73
CTN		16	13								29	56	51.79
CTW								20	22	22	64	104	61.54
CUR			15	15							30	56	53.57
D1A			16	14	22	20	14	17	21	24	148	258	57.36
DAN	16	18	18	16							68	112	60.71
DCF			14								14	28	50.00
DCI								16	21	21	58	104	55.77
DC2								17	23		40	69	57.97
DEF								15			15	34	44.12
DES	15	17	17	17	18	17	12	20	21	24	178	314	56.69
DEV						19					19	32	59.38
DEZ							22	18	22	21	83	138	60.14
DKC		17		16		12	14	19	19		97	191	50.79
DOK		19	16	14	20	19	15	17	22	23	165	286	57.69
DOL	15	21	17	17	22	21	17	17	18	23	188	314	59.87
DP		19	15	14	21	22	19	21	22	22	175	286	61.19
DUN	14	17		17	19	18	24	16	23	24	172	314	54.78
DWI	15	18	19	21	21	18	17		22	21	172	280	61.43
ECK	14	14	16	16		21					81	144	56.25
EL						19	14				33	66	50.00
ER	12	15	14	17	21	20	16		20		135	245	55.10
ERD	15	18	14	17	19	20	22				125	210	59.52
FEI					23	23	16	17	21	23	123	202	60.89
FIT					20	17	17				54	98	55.10
FLY	15	17									32	56	57.14
FMG	14	18	17	14				16	19	20	118	216	54.63
GBE			16	15	23	19	13	16	20	23	145	258	56.20
GFM							14				14	34	41.18
GM			16	14	20	20	16	20			106	188	56.38
GMP					18	15	13	13	19		78	167	46.71
GRL								21	18	19	58	104	55.77
GRM			16								16	28	57.14
GRN	13	20	14	14	20	19	17	14			131	244	53.69
GRR										25	25	35	71.43
GRS	13	16	17	18	19		16		19	22	140	248	56.45
GTF							14				14	34	41.18
GUN						21	15	20	21		77	135	57.04
GUP		18	14	16		21					69	116	59.48
HAN						20					20	32	62.50
HAT		16						14	22	21	73	132	55.30
HAW				14	19	20	14				67	126	53.17
HEN						19				23	42	67	62.69
HER	15	20	14	14							63	112	56.25
HKB							17	17		24	58	103	56.31
HLG									21	24	45	70	64.29
HNL									21	23	44	70	62.86
HNM	14										14	28	50.00
HOL	15	18									33	56	58.93
HOW	16	18	15	16	23	20	16	19	23	23	189	314	60.19
HSF				17							17	28	60.71
HUB	15	16									31	56	55.36
IMS	15	18	14	18	22	18	15	19			139	244	56.97
IPB							16				16	34	47.06
ISR						21	16	15	18	21	91	170	53.53
JNJ										18	18	35	51.43
JNK			16	15	21	19	16	18	21	21	147	258	56.98
JON		17									17	28	60.71
KAM	13	21	16	15	19	28	23	22	22	23	202	314	64.33
KEE			18	14	21	20	19	18	21	22	153	258	59.30
KEL	18					16	15	16	21	21	107	198	54.04
KEN										20	20	35	57.14
KGR	15	21			21						57	88	64.77
KIS		14	16								30	56	53.57
KKM								16			16	34	47.06
KLK			18	15	20	24	19	23	21	24	164	258	63.57
KMV								21	21	26	68	104	65.38
KNT								17	22	22	61	104	58.65
KPK									19	20	39	70	55.71
KR				16							16	28	57.14
KRA					21	15	17	16	21	22	112	202	55.45
LAU										22	22	35	62.86
LAW			16	14	21	23	24	17	22	23	160	258	62.02
LAZ		20	16	16	21	20	18	17	22		150	251	59.76
LMG					19						19	32	59.38
LYD				18	21	20					59	92	64.13
MAA		15	15	17	23	19	17	15	20	23	164	286	57.34
MAO								15			15	34	44.12
MAR	14	21	16	17	19	20	15	20	22	24	188	314	59.87
MAS	14	19	15	15	22	18	16	18	18	22	177	314	56.37
MAT	15	19	15	14	22						85	144	59.03
MAU	13	19	17	15	20	17	17	20	21	22	181	314	57.64
MAY						18					18	32	56.25
MB	14	19	15	14	19	20	15	17	20	20	173	314	55.10
MCK	16	21	22	16	20	20	15	14	19	21	184	314	58.60
MEA	16	16	16	16	22	18	17	15	19	21	176	314	56.05
MGN					21	16			21	21	79	134	58.96
MGY	14	19						17			50	90	55.56
MIC	14	18									32	56	57.14
MJS	15	15	16	17	21	19	15	14	22	21	175	314	55.73
MKV		19	14	14		23	21	21			112	184	60.87
MMY	15	18	16	15	21						85	144	59.03
MOR	15	17	15	15	22	17	24	18	23	21	187	314	59.55
MRK	15	18	16	16	20	17	15	19	20	21	177	314	56.37
MRS								20		22	42	69	60.87
MTN			17	13				14			44	90	48.89
MUE		16									16	28	57.14
NOA									16		16	35	45.71
NOL						15	14	17	20	20	86	170	50.59
NOR		17									17	28	60.71
NUT			17	13		21	26	18	19	21	135	226	59.73
NYT	16	18									34	56	60.71
OAF	18	18	18	15	22	19	20	17	16	19	182	314	57.96
OMY								17	23	25	65	104	62.50
ONV								14	22	24	60	104	57.69
OSC										21	21	35	60.00
PAY								17	22	21	60	104	57.69
PBI							18	24	21		63	103	61.17
PFZ	15	18	15	19	20	23	21	22	20	23	196	314	62.42
PGH							16	15	20	21	72	138	52.17
PIG	13	19	16	17	17	17	22	18	21	23	183	314	58.28
PIR										23	23	35	65.71
PKL					15						15	32	46.88
PPP									21	23	44	70	62.86
PR				14	18	12	13		21		78	161	48.45
PRZ	14	19									33	56	58.93
PSR	16		17	17	23	20	17	17	21	22	170	286	59.44
PTS									22	21	43	70	61.43
PUH						20					20	32	62.50
RAG		15	16								31	56	55.36
RAN	17										17	28	60.71
RBA									20	27	47	70	67.14
REI			16	15	21	23		17		24	116	189	61.38
REN					19						19	32	59.38
REW						20	15	13	19	23	90	170	52.94
RFL					21	21	16	14		22	94	167	56.29
RGB									20	21	41	70	58.57
RKR						17					17	32	53.13
RM		16	16	16							48	84	57.14
ROG									22	22	44	70	62.86
ROH				16	22						38	60	63.33
RPI			16		22	17					55	120	45.83
RSE	15	17	16	15	21	17					101	176	57.39
RT								19	23	23	65	104	62.50
RTB							20	15	20	23	78	138	56.52
RTH	14	18	15	15	19	22	18	15	20	23	179	314	57.01
RTR			15	17	22		15	15	23	25	132	226	58.41
RUD	14	18	14	15	21	19		16	22	23	162	280	57.86
RW					23	21	15				59	98	60.20
RWL				17							17	28	60.71
RWP								14	23	29	66	104	63.46
RYN								16	23	22	61	104	58.65
S&P										21	21	35	60.00
SAG	14	19	15	15	20	21	17	15	21	24	181	314	57.64
SAU	13	19	16	13		22	17	17	22		139	247	56.28
SCH			15					18	21	22	76	132	57.58
SCP		16									16	28	57.14
SD		19				20	18				57	94	60.64
SE	14	18	13	16	20	20	15	17	21	23	177	314	56.37
SEL	14	20	16	14	18	21	18	16	19	22	178	314	56.69
SFX								17	20		37	69	53.62
SLN					21	17	17	19	21		95	167	56.89
SLT		17	17	16	18	23					91	148	61.49
SMT									21		21	35	60.00
SNS							14	17	20		51	103	49.51
SOL	15	17	16	15	19	22	15	15	21	23	178	314	56.69
SOR	14	18	15	15	20	20	17	15	19	22	175	314	55.73
SP						21	19	19	22	23	104	170	61.18
SPR				15	19						34	60	56.67
SPT				15	20						35	88	39.77
SQ				13	20	23					56	92	60.87
STH						21	21	17	19	22	100	170	58.82
STN									21	22	43	70	61.43
STU									20	20	40	70	57.14
SUN	14	18	17						23		72	119	60.50
SWT	14										14	28	50.00
TAT	13										13	28	46.43
TFG									21	26	47	70	67.14
TMR									18	22	40	70	57.14
TOL							16				16	34	47.06
TOY				18							18	28	64.29
TR				14	20	14		14	21	21	104	196	53.06
TRX			15	19	21	24	16	21	23		139	223	62.33
TSR	16	18	15	17	21	20					107	176	60.80
TSW	15	19	11	14		18	15				92	178	51.69
TUB							17				17	34	50.00
UCS		17		15		18				20	70	123	56.91
VRN								16	20	22	58	104	55.77
WAS								18	23	25	66	104	63.46
WAT		21									21	28	75.00
WEL	15	15	16	16	22	22	15	15	19	22	177	314	56.37
WIL	15	18	16	15	20	21	15	17	21	22	180	314	57.32
WIS					19	20					39	64	60.94
WLK	14	18	16	14	23	21	15	20	21	23	185	314	58.92
WOB	16	18	14	15	21	18	16	15	20	22	175	314	55.73
WOL	15	17	12	16	21	18	14	16	19	21	169	314	53.82
WTS				13		21					34	60	56.67
XWP									22	23	45	70	64.29
YEA			16	15							31	56	55.36
YL	11	18									29	56	51.79
LV Line	15	19	15	17	23	24	22	17	24	25	201	314	64.01
Mean	14.6	17.8	15.8	15.7	20.6	19.4	17	17.1	20.8	22.2	180.9	314	57.61

# with X wins	X	Systems	with that	many wins	in 2006.

1	24	ARG
9	23	WLK,HOW,	PSR,WLF,	RW,CNF,	FEI,MAA,	Avg.Rank
16	22	CLA, D1A,	COF,IMS,	MAS,ASH,	DOL,MAT,	RTR,BPI,	RPI,ROH,	GBE,MEA,	MOR,OAF
29	21
19	20
17	19
6	18
1	17
1	15

Year	LV Line	# sys.	Avg. # right	MAX.	Median	MIN.	100%	0%	> 80%	< 20%	> 50%
2002	15	78	14.6	18(2)	14.5(52)	11(2)	6	3	14	12	14
2003	19	97	17.8	21(6)	18(31)	14(4)	2	1	12	3	18
2004	15	99	15.8	22(1)	16(32)	11(1)	4	3	10	5	14
2005	17	104	15.654	21(1)	16(20)	13(5)	1	0	10	7	15
2006	23	99	20.555	24(1)	21(29)	15(1)	3	1	15	6	22
2007	24	116	19.354	28(1)	20(24)	12(2)	1	2	16	8	20
2008	22	109	17.03	26(1)	16.5(36)	12(1)	1	0	11	9	16
2009	17	121	17.15	24(1)	17(25)	13(3)	2	0	10	11	17
2010	24	129	20.81	26(1)	21(36)	16(2)	3	1	15	8	22
2011	25	126	22.16	29(1)	22(33)	18(2)	5	0	16	5	21

# with X wins	X	Systems	with that	many wins	in 2009.
24	1	PBI
23	1	KLK
22	2	KAM, PFZ
21	6	ARG, DP,	MKV,TRX,	GRL, KMV
20	9	CPA,DES,	GM,GUN,	MAR,MAU	,MRS,WLK,	CTW
19	10	ACR, BIL,	CPR,DKC,	HOW,IMS,	RWP,RT,	SLN,MRK
18	20
17	25
16	17
15	15
14	12
13	3