How well all six models matched the 2017-18 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.89107 | 0.96231 | 0.94034 | 14,8,7 | 1.7714 |
PR2 | 0.76250 | 0.89154 | 0.93964 | 12,7,7 | 2.1714 |
50T | 0.81786 | 0.90923 | 0.82815 | 11,7,7 | 2.9714 |
LN2 | 0.88929 | 0.94692 | 0.97017 | 9,8,8 | 2.0857 |
ZPF | 0.89286 | 0.97038 | 0.98389 | 16,6,7 | 1.2286 |
MCB | 0.76964 | 0.92423 | 0.66625 | 6,12,6 | 3.3143 |
OCC | 0.92727 | 0.92180 | 0.95951 | 11,8,5 | 2.0857 |
Commentary: ZPF had its best year, with 16 exact matches and its lowest average difference - almost 0.5 lower than its previous best (in 2016-17). ZP2 also reached a few milestones, with its second highest exact match total (14), and its 3rd lowest average difference. Virginia was the top seed in the NCAA tournament, and #1 in both polls, however, they lost their opening game to a #16 seed (UMBC - by 20 points!) and surprisingly only dropped to the #5 position in the final coaches' poll. (OCC ranked them only two positions higher than that, and ZPF only four; every other model varied from 6 to 14 positions higher.) In 2012-13, Gonzaga was #1, lost their second round game, but plummeted to the #12 position, so perhaps those who cast votes this past year thought more highly of Virginia's strong season (in the ACC) over Gonzaga's run through the West Coast Conference several years ago. UMBC was ranked slightly lower, than in the final poll, by most models; the MCB model ranked them so much lower, that UMBC (by itself) lowered MCB's avg. difference by a full 'point'!
Almost all the systems were only off by 2 or so positions, with regards to NIT champion Penn State, and likewise with NIT runner-up Utah; St. Mary's was actually ranked higher in the final poll (than predicted below) even though they only earned two NIT wins. However, since they were somehow not selected to the NCAA tournament, and were the #24 team before these tournaments began, the voters still thought highly enough to rank them above Utah (#33 versus #36), but the models below had their ranks essentially in the other order.
Team Name | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Villanova | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Michigan | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Duke | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Virginia | 5 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
TexasTech | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
Loyola-Chic. | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
Xavier | 8 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
Purdue | 9 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
Gonzaga | 10 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
MichiganSt | 11 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
Cincinnati | 12 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 18 |
WestVirginia | 13 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
NorthCarolina | 14 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 16 |
Clemson | 15 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
Tennessee | 16 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 21 | 19 |
Kentucky | 17 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
FloridaSt | 18 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 13 | 13 |
KansasSt | 19 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 15 |
Nevada | 20 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 17 | 20 |
OhioSt | 21 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
Houston | 22 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 22 |
Auburn | 23 | 1 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
TexasA&M | 24 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 24 |
WichitaSt | 25 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 30 |
Syracuse | 26 | 2 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 29 |
Arizona | 27 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 30 | 28 |
RhodeIsland | 28 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 25 |
Florida | 29 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 26 |
PennSt | 30 | "5" | 32 | 30 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 32 | 35 |
Butler | 31 | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 31 | 33 |
Buffalo | 32 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 34 | 31 |
SetonHall | 33 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 27 | 32 |
UMBC | 33 | 1 | 51 | 44 | 55 | 35 | 36 | 80 | 45 |
StMary'sCA | 33 | "2" | 38 | 40 | 57 | 37 | 38 | 33 | 27 |
Utah | 36 | "4" | 36 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 39 | 46 | 38 |
Providence | 37 | 0 | 50 | 49 | 47 | 42 | 42 | 65 | 40 |
MiamiFL | 37 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 39 | 36 |
Creighton | 39 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 39 |