How well all six models matched the 2016-17 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.98836 | 0.97692 | 0.98494 | 9,14,7 | 1.3143 |
PR2 | 0.97321 | 0.97154 | 0.98214 | 15,6,10 | 1.2571 |
50T | 0.97857 | 0.95538 | 0.97626 | 14,9,5 | 1.2857 |
LN2 | 0.97857 | 0.97462 | 0.97780 | 15,8,6 | 1.3143 |
ZPF | 0.96429 | 0.96000 | 0.97080 | 12,7,7 | 1.6571 |
MCB | 0.84286 | 0.90731 | 0.95105 | 5,12,3 | 2.4000 |
OCC | 0.93393 | 0.96654 | 0.95203 | 3,16,8 | 2.1714 |
Commentary: Every system above (except ZPF) achieved its lowest average difference ever! ZP2, PR2, and 50T's averages were all between 0.4 and 0.6 smaller than their previous bests, while LN2 was roughly 0.1 smaller, and MCB exactly matched its previous lowest average (of 2.4). OCC achieved its fourth best sum of the three relevant SCC values (listed in the table above), with 16 teams being ranked +/- one position in the final poll; three exact matches, and eight more just off by two positions. (ZPF's best average difference occurred in 2017-18.)
Team Name | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
NorthCarolina | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Gonzaga | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Oregon | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Kansas | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Kentucky | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
SouthCarolina | 6 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
Arizona | 7 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
Villanova | 8 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
UCLA | 9 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Florida | 10 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
WestVirginia | 11 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
Baylor | 12 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Duke | 13 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 14 |
Louisville | 14 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 16 |
Purdue | 15 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 13 |
Wisconsin | 16 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 17 |
Michigan | 17 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
Xavier | 18 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 14 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
Butler | 19 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 18 |
NotreDame | 20 | 1 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 27 | 20 |
WichitaSt | 21 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 14 | 23 |
Cincinnati | 22 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 21 |
SMU | 23 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 26 | 28 |
FloridaSt | 24 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 22 |
IowaSt | 25 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 |
StMary'sCA | 26 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 25 |
Virginia | 27 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 26 |
USC | 28 | 1 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 30 |
MTSU | 29 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Arkansas | 30 | 1 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 31 |
RhodeIsland | 31 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 39 |
Northwestern | 32 | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 29 |
MichiganSt | 33 | 1 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 40 | 40 |
OklahomaSt | 34T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 34 | 38 |
Dayton | 34T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 42 | 42 | 36 | 45 |
Maryland | 36T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 41 | 41 | 39 | 44 |
VACommonwealth | 36T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 41 | 75 |
TCU | 38 | "5" | 33 | 29 | 29 | 34 | 30 | 35 | 32 |