How well all six models matched the 2015-16 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.84732 | 0.93865 | 0.92411 | 6,11,7 | 2.8000 |
PR2 | 0.83839 | 0.90442 | 0.90647 | 7,11,4 | 3.0286 |
50T | 0.88304 | 0.93750 | 0.92930 | 7,11,4 | 2.6286 |
LN2 | 0.93304 | 0.96942 | 0.93546 | 9,14,2 | 2.2571 |
ZPF | 0.96339 | 0.98481 | 0.94890 | 9,16,3 | 1.8667 |
MCB | 0.73125 | 0.74788 | 0.73793 | 7,5,5 | 4.9810 |
OCC | 0.86339 | 0.88827 | 0.90637 | 6,9,6 | 3.1905 |
Commentary: Though MCB had its highest (i.e. its worst) average difference, it was the only model that matched the top 6 exactly! The ZPF model had one of its strongest years, posting its alltime highest SCC-25 value (5th best of any model!), and its 3rd best SCC-15 value; and it was only off by one on 16 (LN2 also achieved its highest total in this category this year as well: 14) of the top 35 teams, matching 9 final poll positions exactly - specifically #7 Michigan State, where all other models were off by at least 3 positions (except for OCC - off by one), and West Virginia, where the closest competitor was 3 positions away. ZPF was only off by 1 with #17 Notre Dame (and MCB was off by 2 for the Irish), but the other five models were 6 or more away. #28 California was predicted to be #41 by the ZPF model, and only the 50T model prediction was less than 10 positions away from where the coaches voted them. Likewise, with #31 Texas; all models were at least 7 spots off - with regards to the Longhorns' final rank.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Villanova | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
NorthCarolina | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Kansas | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Oklahoma | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Virginia | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Oregon | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
MichiganSt | 7 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 8 |
MiamiFL | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
Indiana | 9 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
Syracuse | 10 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
Xavier | 11 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 15 |
Maryland | 12T | 2 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
TexasA&M | 12T | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
WestVirginia | 14 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 21 |
IowaSt | 15 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
Kentucky | 16 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
NotreDame | 17 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
Duke | 18 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
Purdue | 19 | 0 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 22 | 22 |
Utah | 20 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 18 |
Gonzaga | 21 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
Arizona | 22 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 29 |
Wisconsin | 23 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 20 |
Baylor | 24 | 0 | 31 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 42 | 33 |
Iowa | 25 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 |
WichitaSt | 26 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 19 | 27 |
StJoseph'sPA | 27 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 24 |
California | 28 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 36 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 39 |
SetonHall | 29 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 30 | 38 | 29 | 39 | 37 |
Providence | 30 | 1 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 37 | 26 |
Texas | 31 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 51 | 38 |
NorthernIowa | 32 | 1 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 31 | 33 | 49 | 30 |
Connecticut | 33 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 25 |
Butler | 34T | 1 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 | 26 | 34 |
GWashington | 34T | "5" | 32 | 28 | 24 | 41 | 31 | 40 | 40 |
SFAustin | 34T | 1 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 30 | 32 | 29 | 28 |
VACommonwealth | 37 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 32 | 34 | 31 | 32 |
Cincinnati | 38 | 0 | 45 | 45 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 50 |
Valparaiso | 39 | "4" | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 38 | 41 |
Yale | 40T | 1 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 35 |
Hawaii | 40T | 1 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 30 | 42 |
StMary'sCA | 40T | "2" | 46 | 53 | 62 | 73 | 73 | 35 | 31 |
ArkLittleRock | 40T | 1 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 34 | 36 |