How well all six models matched the 2013-14 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.97321 | 0.97788 | 0.93943 | 10,12,6 | 1.9429 |
PR2 | 0.95893 | 0.98173 | 0.94363 | 13,9,5 | 2.0571 |
50T | 0.95893 | 0.97096 | 0.95722 | 9,14,4 | 1.9143 |
LN2 | 0.95357 | 0.97442 | 0.95399 | 10,9,8 | 1.9714 |
ZPF | 0.93571 | 0.97250 | 0.94585 | 7,11,7 | 2.0286 |
MCB | 0.92857 | 0.91091 | 0.87934 | 6,9,5 | 3.4000 |
OCC | 0.94643 | 0.93654 | 0.90644 | 10,6,4 | 3.0571 |
Commentary: Most models correctly predicted a large majority of the top 35 teams to be within 2 or fewer positions of their final poll position: ZP2 predicted 28 teams; PR2, 50T and LN2 27; ZPF 25; and MCB was slightly above its average (of 18) at 20 along with OCC (at 20). PR2 and 50T correctly ranked the top 6 teams, and every model correctly placed SanDiegoSt as the #12 team. Even though MCB correctly predicted Dayton to be the #18 team, most systems thought that this Elite Eight team should have been ranked 3-5 places higher in the final poll; ZPF predicted they would be ranked as the #17 team, and OCC had them at #19.
It is interesting to note that the ZP2, PR2, 50T and the LN2 models all thought that UNC and Cincinnati were ranked two places too high, and that Tennessee and Stanford were both ranked two places too low. Memphis, for the second year in a row, was predicted quite accurately, and the NIT champion, from Minnesota, was predicted to be ranked higher by all models (but LN2), though NIT runner-up SMU was only predicted to be ranked lower, by 1-3 places by five of the models. (MCB had them 15 positions lower, and OCC had them ranked 13 positions higher; recall that OCC primarily relies upon each team's rank prior to the when the NCAA/NIT tournaments begin, and SMU was ranked #33 in the penultimate coaches' poll, whereas Minnesota was unranked at that time.)
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Connecticut | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Kentucky | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Florida | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Wisconsin | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Arizona | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Michigan | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
WichitaSt | 7 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
MichiganSt | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
Louisville | 9 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
Virginia | 10 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
IowaSt | 11 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
SanDiegoSt | 12 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Villanova | 13 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
Kansas | 14 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
UCLA | 15 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 15 |
Duke | 16 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 24 | 17 |
Syracuse | 17 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 |
Baylor | 18T | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
Dayton | 18T | 3 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
Creighton | 20 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 20 |
NorthCarolina | 21 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 21 |
Cincinnati | 22 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 29 | 27 |
Tennessee | 23 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 31 |
Stanford | 24 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 30 |
StLouis | 25 | 1 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 22 |
NewMexico | 26 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 34 | 32 |
Oklahoma | 27 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 31 | 34 |
Memphis | 28 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 23 |
OhioSt | 29T | 0 | 37 | 39 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 23 | 37 |
Harvard | 29T | 1 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 33 | 26 | 33 |
Oregon | 31 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 42 |
Texas | 32 | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 35 | 28 |
VACommonwealth | 33 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 22 | 38 |
Pittsburgh | 34T | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 21 | 26 |
Gonzaga | 34T | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 51 | 25 |
StJoseph'sPA | 36 | 0 | 47 | 46 | 46 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 39 |
Minnesota | 37T | "5" | 33 | 31 | 27 | 38 | 32 | 32 | 36 |
SMU | 37T | "4" | 39 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 52 | 24 |
SFAustin | 37T | 1 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 31 | 31 | 54 | 29 |
FloridaSt | 40 | "3" | 45 | 51 | 57 | 57 | 72 | 39 | 44 |
Clemson | 41T | "3" | 52 | 54 | 61 | 55 | 71 | 42 | 43 |
NDakotaSt | 41T | 1 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 40 | 41 |