How well all six models matched the 2012-13 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.90714 | 0.96577 | 0.95287 | 11,11,5 | 1.9429 |
PR2 | 0.93929 | 0.97115 | 0.95847 | 9,11,7 | 1.7429 |
50T | 0.95000 | 0.97269 | 0.95987 | 7,11,8 | 2.0571 |
LN2 | 0.91071 | 0.96077 | 0.95875 | 9,9,7 | 2.0286 |
ZPF | 0.73750 | 0.92346 | 0.95217 | 6,6,9 | 2.3714 |
MCB | 0.91071 | 0.59115 | 0.77248 | 8,5,2 | 4.7143 |
OCC | 0.71696 | 0.90538 | 0.90189 | 7,9,2 | 2.9143 |
Commentary: Every model (except MCB and OCC) had an SCC-35 value greather than 0.95! (This was the worse year for MCB, as it achieved its smallest SCC-25 - and secpmc smallest SCC-35 - values along with its second highest average difference ever; this was probably due to poorly predicting #25 Florida Gulf Coast's final rank. OCC had #4 Wichita State at #13 - like ZPF - and ranked #12 Gonzaga as #6, #34 Illinois as #40 and California, who tied for #30, as #42.) ZPF ranked Final Four participant, and #9 seed, Wichita State as #13 primarily because the Shockers didn't receive any votes in the penultimate coaches' poll, and ZPF also ended up being the third worse predictor (of the seven models listed here) this year. (ZP2 had the Shockers as #10; two other systems predicted #8, and the other two at #6.) ZP2, PR2 correctly predicted 27 teams of the top 35 teams within 2 or fewer places of their actual, final poll positions: 50T predicted 26, LN2 predicted 25, ZPF predicted 21, OCC predicted 18, and MCB only 15.
#3 seed Marquette reached the Elite Eight, but since their first two games, against lower seeded teams, were won on last second shots, the coaches didn't place them higher than #11 - which only PR2 and 50T disagreed with by more than 1 rank. All 6 models (except ZPF and OCC) correctly placed Michigan State as #13, and Arizona as #14 (not ZPF); #18 Memphis was ranked correctly by 4 models, and plus or minus one spot by the other three. Two unheralded, Sweet Sixteen teams - LaSalle (a 13-seed - and play-in victor), and Florida Gulf Coast (the first such 15-seed!) - were ranked as the #24 and #25 teams in the final poll. All models had LaSalle 3 or 4 places higher, except OCC - which ranked LaSalle 3 places lower, and FGC was predicted 1-3 places higher according to five of the seven models; as with LaSalle, OCC ranked FGC 3 places below their final poll position. (MCB had FGC as #48, probably due to their relatively low power rating this season.) NIT champion Baylor tied for the #30 final poll position, and while 3 systems predicted they should be higher than that, two other models predicted lower, and the remaining two were close: PR2 ranked them as #31, and OCC as #32. NIT runner-up Iowa was predicted to be 2-4 places lower than their #38 final rank by every model except OCC, which ranked Iowa at #35.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Louisville | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Michigan | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Syracuse | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
WichitaSt | 4 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
Duke | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
OhioSt | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Indiana | 7 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
Kansas | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
Florida | 9 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
MiamiFL | 10 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
Marquette | 11 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
Gonzaga | 12 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
MichiganSt | 13 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
Arizona | 14 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
Oregon | 15 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 15 |
StLouis | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 16 |
Georgetown | 17 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 25 | 18 |
Memphis | 18 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
NewMexico | 19 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 27 | 20 |
KansasSt | 20 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 34 | 23 |
Creighton | 21 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 16 | 19 |
Wisconsin | 22 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 31 | 29 |
VACommonwealth | 23 | 1 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 17 | 21 |
LaSalle | 24 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
FLGulfCoast | 25 | 2 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 48 | 28 |
Butler | 26 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 25 |
OklahomaSt | 27 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 32 | 30 |
Mississippi | 28 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 20 | 24 |
NorthCarolina | 29 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 22 |
Baylor | 30T | "5" | 36 | 31 | 27 | 39 | 28 | 40 | 32 |
California | 30T | 1 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 44 | 42 |
IowaSt | 32 | 1 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 39 |
StMary'sCA | 33 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 28 | 33 |
Illinois | 34 | 1 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 40 |
ColoradoSt | 35 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 23 | 26 |
Temple | 36T | 1 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 32 | 33 | 37 | 43 |
Pittsburgh | 36T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 34 | 38 | 39 | 22 | 31 |
Iowa | 38 | "4" | 40 | 40 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 35 |
UCLA | 39 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 43 | 34 |
Minnesota | 40T | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 26 | 38 |
NotreDame | 40T | 0 | 42 | 42 | 40 | 43 | 43 | 39 | 36 |
Belmont | 40T | 0 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 37 |
WeberSt |
40T |
4-1 (2nd) CIT |
98 |
94 |
100 |
101 |
101 |
69 |
76 |