How well all six models matched the 2011-12 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.96429 | 0.96923 | 0.96029 | 8,13,8 | 1.8571 |
PR2 | 0.97857 | 0.96692 | 0.95749 | 14,8,5 | 1.7714 |
50T | 0.97857 | 0.96538 | 0.96450 | 12,9,6 | 1.7429 |
LN2 | 0.97321 | 0.95731 | 0.95623 | 10,12,4 | 1.9143 |
ZPF | 0.95536 | 0.94808 | 0.95469 | 7,11,6 | 2.1143 |
MCB | 0.62321 | 0.74654 | 0.78690 | 6,9,3 | 4.0857 |
OCC | 0.95000 | 0.97288 | 0.96261 | 10,9,7 | 1.7429 |
Commentary: Except for the MCB model, every system matched very closely the final poll this year. The 50T model recorded its second lowest overall average difference. (It was also the third lowest difference for PR2 and ZP2, lowest OCC?) The ZP2 model ranked 29 of the top 35 teams within 2 positions (or less) of where the coaches ranked them; PR2 matched the coaches exactly 14 times, OCC had its second lowest SCC-35 value (and fourth lowest SCC-25 value as well). Five of the seven models listed below had NIT champion Stanford only a few positions from where the coaches thought they should be ranked, but all of the models 'ignored' CBI champion (#38) Pittsburgh; however, the two teams who tied for the 39th position in the final poll were ranked close to that position by the models.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Kentucky | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Kansas | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
OhioSt | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Louisville | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Syracuse | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
NorthCarolina | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
MichiganSt | 7 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
Baylor | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Florida | 9 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Marquette | 10 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 10 |
Missouri | 11 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
Wisconsin | 12 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
Indiana | 13 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
Duke | 14 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 22 | 18 |
FloridaSt | 15 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 26 | 15 |
MurraySt | 16 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
Georgetown | 17 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
Cincinnati | 18 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 16 |
Vanderbilt | 19 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 23 | 22 |
NCState | 20 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 19 |
Creighton | 21 | 1 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
Michigan | 22 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 38 | 23 |
NewMexico | 23 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 14 | 21 |
Xavier | 24 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 31 | 27 |
Ohio | 25 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 28 |
Gonzaga | 26 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
WichitaSt | 27 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 21 | 32 |
StMary'sCA | 28 | 0 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 33 | 29 |
VACommonwealth | 29 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 25 |
SanDiegoSt | 30 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 45 | 33 |
KansasSt | 31 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 26 |
Purdue | 32T | 1 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 40 |
Stanford | 32T | "5" | 34 | 33 | 27 | 40 | 30 | 34 | 34 |
NotreDame | 34 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 57 | 36 |
UNLV | 35 | 0 | 37 | 38 | 35 | 39 | 40 | 35 | 35 |
Temple | 36T | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 44 | 44 | 41 | 39 |
StLouis | 36T | 1 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 19 | 30 |
Pittsburgh | 38 | CBI | 102 | 102 | 105 | 115 | 115 | 99 | 87 |
SouthFlorida | 39T | 1 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 49 | 41 |
IowaSt | 39T | 1 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 31 |