How well all six models matched the 2010-11 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.92500 | 0.97000 | 0.95565 | 6,11,9 | 2.2000 |
PR2 | 0.93929 | 0.97346 | 0.95229 | 10,11,3 | 2.0857 |
50T | 0.93929 | 0.97692 | 0.94767 | 10,6,8 | 2.1714 |
LN2 | 0.93571 | 0.97615 | 0.96321 | 7,13,5 | 1.9238 |
ZPF | 0.86607 | 0.95846 | 0.95850 | 3,12,9 | 2.3333 |
MCB | 0.73036 | 0.90769 | 0.86290 | 3,8,8 | 3.1690 |
OCC | 0.78214 | 0.87673 | 0.93030 | 3,11,5 | 2.9048 |
Commentary: The sum of the SCC-25 and SCC-35 values, for the first five models listed in the table above, are in the top five predictive performances for the 20+ year period (from 1993-2014). There were larger relative disagreements in the top 15 than with the teams who were ranked below that mark this year, which is unusual when compared to the typically larger predictive rank discrepanicies that occur with teams who are ranked from #16-#35 (in the final poll). The ranking disagreement with regards to the 8th seeded Butler team, who lost in the championship game, was not as much as with #11 seed VCU, who reached the Final Four (and lost to Butler). The ZP2, ZPF and MCB models were fairly accurate, when considering this year's NIT champion (Wichita State), but the three other models were off by 5, 5 and 11 positions, respectively.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Connecticut | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Butler | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
Kentucky | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Kansas | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
OhioSt | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
VACommonwealth | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 14 |
Duke | 7 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
NorthCarolina | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Arizona | 9 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
Florida | 10 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
SanDiegoSt | 11 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Pittsburgh | 12 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
BYU | 13 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
NotreDame | 14 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 13 |
Wisconsin | 15 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 15 |
Texas | 16 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
Purdue | 17 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
Syracuse | 18 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
FloridaSt | 19 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 28 |
Marquette | 20 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 27 |
Richmond | 21 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 17 |
Louisville | 22 | 0 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 21 |
Washington | 23 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 20 |
KansasSt | 24 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 31 | 22 |
UtahSt | 25 | 0 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 31 |
Temple | 26 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 23 |
WestVirginia | 27 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 24 |
StJohn's | 28 | 0 | 32 | 34 | 31 | 26 | 24 | 46 | 32 |
TexasA&M | 29T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 32 | 40 | 33 |
Xavier | 29T | 0 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 35 |
UCLA | 31 | 1 | 33 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 30 |
Vanderbilt | 32T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 34 |
Cincinnati | 32T | 1 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 22 | 25 |
WichitaSt | 34 | "5" | 31 | 29 | 23 | 39 | 33 | 32 | 36 |
Michigan | 35T | 1 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 36 | 43 |
OldDominion | 35T | 0 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
GeorgeMason | 35T | 1 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 25 | 29 |
Gonzaga | 38 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 26 |
Georgetown | 39 | 0 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 37 |
Missouri | 40 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 43 | 38 | 40 |
Illinois | 41 | 1 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 33 | 42 |