How well all six models matched the 2008-09 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.98214 | 0.92231 | 0.91372 | 15,6,4 | 2.3714 |
PR2 | 0.98214 | 0.91846 | 0.90539 | 13,8,3 | 2.6000 |
50T | 0.98214 | 0.93115 | 0.91674 | 14,6,3 | 2.4857 |
LN2 | 0.98036 | 0.92615 | 0.92808 | 13,5,5 | 2.4286 |
ZPF | 0.95893 | 0.91769 | 0.92906 | 7,11,8 | 2.4571 |
MCB | 0.95357 | 0.76346 | 0.83873 | 6,11,11 | 3.2000 |
OCC | 0.93571 | 0.97423 | 0.89811 | 9,10,8 | 2.5425 |
Commentary: Every model matched the top 15 teams in the final coaches' poll very accurately this year: the ZP2, PR2, 50T and LN2 models all matched the top 9 exactly (the ZP2, PR2 and 50T models made identical predictions for all top 15 teams this year!), and three models achieved their highest SCC-15 values ever (though it is only the second highest SCC-15 value for ZP2, and the LN2 model matched this SCC-15 value in 2014-15, while PR2 matched it in 1993-94); ZPF and MCB achieved their 5th and 3rd best SCC-15 values, respectively, this year as well. (The 14 exact matches - in the top 35 - is the most exhibited by the 50T model, along with 2017, and the 15 exact matches by the ZP2 model tied for that model's highest total as well.)
All models, except for MCB, were quite accurate within the top 25 and top 35, and MCB also placed 28 of the top 35 teams within 2 of the actual poll results, which is 9 more teams than average (for MCB). OCC had the highest SCC-25 value (by far) - which is also that model's third highest total so far. Besides MCB, the other six models were all much more accurate, with regards to ranking #22 Florida State (#16 in both polls before the NCAA tournament), and this discrepancy really lowered MCB's SCC values (for the top 25 and top 35 teams). (FSU was a #5 seed, and lost their opening round game, by two points in overtime, to #12 seed Wisconsin.) Only ZP2 and OCC correctly predicted NIT champion Penn State less than four places from its final position (tied for the 32nd best team this year).
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
NorthCarolina | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MichiganSt | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Connecticut | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Villanova | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Louisville | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Pittsburgh | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Oklahoma | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
Missouri | 8 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
Memphis | 9 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Kansas | 10 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Duke | 11 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Syracuse | 12 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Gonzaga | 13 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Purdue | 14 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
Xavier | 15 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
Washington | 16 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 16 |
LSU | 17 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
UCLA | 18 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
ArizonaSt | 19 | 1 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
WakeForest | 20 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 20 |
Marquette | 21 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 21 |
FloridaSt | 22 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 44 | 24 |
Texas | 23 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 25 |
Arizona | 24 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
Butler | 25 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 34 | 29 |
Clemson | 26 | 0 | 34 | 36 | 32 | 35 | 27 | 28 | 28 |
USC | 27 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 22 |
Siena | 28 | 1 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 26 |
OklahomaSt | 29 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 25 | 38 |
Dayton | 30 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 43 |
UtahSt | 31 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 38 | 39 | 29 | 31 |
Illinois | 32T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 33 | 32 |
PennSt | 32T | "5" | 33 | 27 | 24 | 37 | 25 | 43 | 30 |
WKentucky | 34 | 1 | 36 | 35 | 37 | 31 | 33 | 49 | 45 |
Tennessee | 35 | 0 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 45 | 48 | 49 |
WestVirginia | 36 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 42 | 42 | 26 | 36 |
Maryland | 37 | 1 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 40 | 40 |
Michigan | 38 | 1 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 38 | 41 |
TexasA&M | 39 | 1 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 42 |
OhioSt | 40T | 0 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 33 |
StMary'sCA | 40T | "2" | 52 | 55 | 61 | 70 | 70 | 45 | 27 |
ClevelandSt | 42T | 1 | 35 | 34 | 36 | 30 | 32 | 41 | 44 |
Utah | 42T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 35 |