How well all six models matched the 2006-07 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.96071 | 0.97154 | 0.94337 | 12,6,6 | 2.1714 |
PR2 | 0.97321 | 0.97231 | 0.94232 | 13,6,4 | 2.2000 |
50T | 0.97321 | 0.96769 | 0.93690 | 10,6,6 | 2.3429 |
LN2 | 0.97500 | 0.97538 | 0.97892 | 14,7,5 | 1.4286 |
ZPF | 0.93393 | 0.95462 | 0.96562 | 12,7,6 | 1.8000 |
MCB | 0.97143 | 0.86923 | 0.84000 | 8,7,5 | 3.3714 |
OCC | 0.97857 | 0.98673 | 0.95210 | 14,7,5 | 1.8000 |
Commentary: Every model very accurately predicted the top 15 teams, including MCB's highest such value (and LN2's fourth highest). By 'compensating' for how the first five models disagreed about the final ranks for the two pairs of teams that were tied for 5th and 12th place, in this year's final coaches poll, these five models matched the top 12 teams 'exactly', which helps to explain these high SCC-15 values. LN2 had its best SCC-35 result ever, and its second lowest overall average difference (to date)! The top four models listed (and OCC) in the above table, also matched the top 25 teams quite well, and only slightly less so with regards to the top 35 teams. All the models placed NIT runnerup Clemson quite close to its final rank (#37), but were not so successful with NIT champion West Virginia, who tied for the #33 position. #30 Creighton was predicted to be 5 to 9 places lower in the final poll, and #35 Kentucky was predicted 9 or 10 places higher (except for LN2 and ZPF - who ranked Kentucky only 3 and 2 places higher, respectively, and OCC, which ranked them 4 places lower); the predictions for these three teams directly lowered the models' SCC-35 values. OCC had its best year here, with its top SCC-15 and SCC-25 values as well as matching 14 teams 'exactly', and 26 teams in the top 35 within two or fewer positions of their position in the final coaches' poll!
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Florida | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
OhioSt | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
UCLA | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Georgetown | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
NorthCarolina | 5T | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Kansas | 5T | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Memphis | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Oregon | 8 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
TexasA&M | 9 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
Pittsburgh | 10 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
SIllinois | 11T | 2 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
Wisconsin | 11T | 1 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
Butler | 13 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 14 |
UNLV | 14 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
USC | 15 | 2 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
Texas | 16 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 15 |
WashingtonSt | 17 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 17 |
Tennessee | 18 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
Vanderbilt | 19 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 19 |
Louisville | 20 | 1 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
Nevada | 21 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 18 |
Winthrop | 22 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 22 | 26 | 22 |
Maryland | 23 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 15 | 23 |
Virginia | 24 | 1 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 35 | 26 |
VirginiaTech | 25 | 1 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 33 | 25 |
Xavier | 26 | 1 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 23 | 30 |
NotreDame | 27 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 28 | 29 |
Marquette | 28 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 33 | 29 | 27 | 42 | 32 |
VACommonwealth | 29 | 1 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 27 |
Creighton | 30 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 48 | 35 |
MichiganSt | 31 | 1 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 33 | 27 | 41 |
BostonCollege | 32 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 28 | 30 | 37 | 28 |
BYU | 33T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 35 | 36 | 43 | 34 |
WestVirginia | 33T | "5" | 31 | 25 | 23 | 37 | 29 | 29 | 24 |
Kentucky | 35 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 34 | 25 | 39 |
Davidson | 36 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 37 |
Clemson | 37 | "4" | 36 | 36 | 37 | 40 | 40 | 36 | 38 |
Indiana | 38T | 1 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 24 | 40 |
Duke | 38T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 38 | 38 | 32 | 36 |
Akron | 38T | NI | 84 | 80 | 92 | 98 | 98 | 51 | 46 |