How well all six models matched the 2005-06 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.94464 | 0.97846 | 0.94405 | 11,9,4 | 2.1143 |
PR2 | 0.97500 | 0.98308 | 0.94685 | 10,11,5 | 1.9714 |
50T | 0.97500 | 0.98269 | 0.95987 | 9,13,5 | 1.8000 |
LN2 | 0.94286 | 0.96692 | 0.94293 | 10,11,4 | 2.1714 |
ZPF | 0.87143 | 0.94077 | 0.92654 | 7,9,7 | 2.6571 |
MCB | 0.90000 | 0.96231 | 0.87808 | 7,11,4 | 3.1429 |
OCC | 0.89286 | 0.96115 | 0.93690 | 3,12,8 | 2.3714 |
Commentary: Every model matched the top 25 amazingly well this year, with the PR2, 50T and MCB models recording their second best SCC-25 values so far (and this was also ZP2's fourth best). 50T had the lowest overall average difference this year (which was its third lowest average ever). 50T had 9 exactly right, and 13 more team's ranks were only off by one, which helps to explain why 50T's SCC-35 value was the best this year. NIT champion South Carolina was ranked #38 in this year's final poll, and ZPF had them pegged exactly, MCB had them one spot better (not that these results were 'counted' in the table above since SC was ranked outside the top 35), but besides the OCC model being only off by four positions, the other models predicted SC would be ranked 7, 10, 10, and 13 spots higher than the actual rank they received.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Florida | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
UCLA | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
LSU | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
Connecticut | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Villanova | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Memphis | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Duke | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
GeorgeMason | 8 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
Texas | 9 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
Gonzaga | 10 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
BostonCollege | 11 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
Washington | 12 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 13 |
OhioSt | 13 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
NorthCarolina | 14 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
WestVirginia | 15 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 14 |
Georgetown | 16 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 16 |
Illinois | 17 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 18 |
Pittsburgh | 18 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
GWashington | 19 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
Tennessee | 20 | 1 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
WichitaSt | 21 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
Kansas | 22 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
Iowa | 23 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 25 |
Bradley | 24 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 23 | 26 |
Bucknell | 25 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 22 |
NCState | 26 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 23 |
Nevada | 27 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 36 | 37 | 30 | 32 |
Syracuse | 28T | 0 | 35 | 35 | 33 | 37 | 38 | 47 | 33 |
UAB | 28T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 35 |
Indiana | 30 | 1 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
Alabama | 31T | 1 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 32 | 41 | 30 |
Oklahoma | 31T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 27 | 40 | 28 |
Arizona | 33 | 1 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 27 | 42 |
Kentucky | 34T | 1 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 34 | 36 | 29 | 43 |
MichiganSt | 34T | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 46 | 37 |
California | 36 | 0 | 51 | 49 | 49 | 43 | 43 | 48 | 38 |
TexasA&M | 37 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 24 | 27 |
SouthCarolina | 38 | "5" | 31 | 28 | 25 | 38 | 28 | 37 | 34 |
Pacific | 39 | 0 | 63 | 62 | 58 | 47 | 47 | 51 | 49 |
WIMilwaukee | 40T | 1 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 44 |
SanDiegoSt | 40T | 0 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 40 |
UNCWilmington | 40T | 0 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
NorthwesternLA | 40T | 1 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 28 | 30 | 45 | 31 |