How well all six models matched the 2002-03 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.83304 | 0.93019 | 0.88249 | 10,8,3 | 3.0571 |
PR2 | 0.85089 | 0.93058 | 0.87619 | 8,8,2 | 3.2286 |
50T | 0.85089 | 0.93404 | 0.89664 | 8,11,3 | 2.8000 |
LN2 | 0.84018 | 0.92558 | 0.91611 | 12,5,3 | 2.8571 |
ZPF | 0.84018 | 0.93519 | 0.92899 | 12,7,1 | 2.4571 |
MCB | 0.88125 | 0.89250 | 0.85084 | 13,2,6 | 3.1714 |
OCC | 0.90982 | 0.94019 | 0.93288 | 11,6,4 | 2.6857 |
Commentary: The OCC model seemed to match the final poll best this year; this model had the second lowest average difference, and best SCC-25 and SCC-35 values. However, it was just about the opposite for the PR2 model as this was its highest average difference ever, and its third worst SCC-15 value. MCB matched a high of 13 ranks exactly (9 in the top 15!), which is its highest value in that category ever,and the most this year (for the seven models represented here). However, the OCC model had just as many teams off by two of fewer positions (21), and this probably help to illustrated why this model's SCC-15 value was the lowest this year, while the other six models all recorded relatively low SCC-15 values (for them).
St. John's tied for 37th position in the final poll this year, after defeating Georgetown in an all 'Big East' NIT finals. ZP2 and LN2 predicted the Redmen to be #37, and OCC predicted them to be the #35 team in the final poll, and PR2 predicted #34, but the other models disagreed widely regarding if they deserved a higher/lower ranking. All models were more consistent with their predictions concerning where the Hoyas should end up: ZPF had them correctly as #39, and all models (except MCB and OCC) had them from 1-4 places lower than that; OCC predicted the Hoyas would be #37 and the MCB model ranked them as #52.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Syracuse | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Kansas | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Texas | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Arizona | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
Marquette | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Oklahoma | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
Pittsburgh | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Duke | 9 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Maryland | 10 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
Connecticut | 11 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
WakeForest | 12 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 16 | 14 |
Wisconsin | 13T | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 13 |
Illinois | 13T | 1 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
NotreDame | 15 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 15 |
Florida | 16 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 11 |
Xavier | 17 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 19 |
MichiganSt | 18 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 12 |
Louisville | 19 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 18 |
Stanford | 20 | 1 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 23 | 20 |
Butler | 21 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 |
Missouri | 22 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 23 |
Creighton | 23 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
OklahomaSt | 24 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
Dayton | 25 | 0 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 36 | 30 |
Gonzaga | 26 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 34 | 27 | 32 |
Auburn | 27 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 27 |
MississippiSt | 28 | 0 | 34 | 36 | 32 | 35 | 29 | 32 | 33 |
Memphis | 29 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 30 | 36 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
California | 30 | 1 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 24 |
StJoseph'sPA | 31 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 31 | 36 |
Utah | 32 | 1 | 28 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 25 |
NCState | 33 | 0 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 42 | 42 | 56 | 40 |
Purdue | 34T | 1 | 29 | 29 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 26 | 28 |
SIllinois | 34T | 0 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 41 |
Oregon | 36 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 38 |
StJohn's | 37T | "5" | 37 | 34 | 28 | 37 | 30 | 49 | 35 |
Tulsa | 37T | 1 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 33 | 36 | 34 | 43 |
Georgetown | 39T | "4" | 42 | 41 | 43 | 40 | 39 | 52 | 37 |
ArizonaSt | 39T | 1 | 30 | 30 | 33 | 32 | 35 | 29 | 31 |
CMichigan | 39T | 1 | 32 | 32 | 35 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 29 |