How well all six models matched the 2001-02 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.98482 | 0.98769 | 0.96218 | 13,8,5 | 1.7429 |
PR2 | 0.93125 | 0.97346 | 0.95168 | 6,11,5 | 2.2571 |
50T | 0.93125 | 0.97346 | 0.96106 | 6,14,6 | 1.9714 |
LN2 | 0.93839 | 0.97731 | 0.97325 | 10,11,7 | 1.6000 |
ZPF | 0.92411 | 0.95115 | 0.96345 | 9,8,7 | 2.0000 |
MCB | 0.91875 | 0.88423 | 0.88922 | 6,8,6 | 3.2857 |
OCC | 0.95089 | 0.95846 | 0.94334 | 7,11,5 | 2.4000 |
Commentary: All the models had a pretty straightforward time accurately predicting the final coaches' poll this year, as indicated by the high SCC values across the board (in the table above). This was probably the strongest year for ZP2, as it recorded its best SCC-15, SCC-25, and second lowest average difference as well as its fourth highest SCC-35 value. LN2 had its fourth best average difference, and it predicted 28 of the top 35 teams within two ranks of their final positions. (LN2's SCC-25 value was its third best ever, and its SCC-35 value was its fourth best as well.) LN2 also most accurately placed NIT champion Memphis (#40) one spot lower than where they were voted, however, all the other models had them from 6 to 15 places higher except for the OCC model, which predicted they'd be ranked as #38. 50T's placed 26 (of the top 35 teams) within two, also recording its all time high of 14 teams to be plus or minus one rank from their actual voted rank (the latter of which was matched in 2014).
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Maryland | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Kansas | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Indiana | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Oklahoma | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Duke | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Oregon | 6T | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Connecticut | 6T | 3 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Cincinnati | 8 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
Arizona | 10 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
Illinois | 11 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
Kent | 12 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 9 | 11 |
Kentucky | 13 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
Alabama | 14 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 14 |
Missouri | 15 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 18 |
Gonzaga | 16 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 25 | 16 |
OhioSt | 17 | 1 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
Texas | 18T | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 19 |
Marquette | 18T | 0 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 26 | 23 |
UCLA | 20 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 21 |
MississippiSt | 21 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
SIllinois | 22 | 2 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 17 |
Florida | 23 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 19 | 28 |
Xavier | 24 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 22 |
NCState | 25 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 25 |
USC | 26 | 0 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 34 | 31 |
MiamiFL | 27 | 0 | 36 | 37 | 35 | 31 | 30 | 37 | 36 |
WakeForest | 28 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 29 |
NotreDame | 29T | 1 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 29 | 30 |
Georgia | 29T | 1 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 26 |
WKentucky | 29T | 0 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 33 | 35 |
California | 32 | 1 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 27 |
OklahomaSt | 33 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 36 | 37 |
Stanford | 34 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 24 |
Tulsa | 35 | 1 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 22 | 32 |
Wisconsin | 36 | 1 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 37 | 38 | 46 | 33 |
Hawaii | 37 | 0 | 41 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 39 |
Wyoming | 38 | 1 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 43 |
TexasTech | 39 | 0 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 35 | 42 |
Memphis | 40 | "5" | 30 | 29 | 25 | 41 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
UNCWilmington | 41T | 1 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 44 |
Creighton | 41T | 1 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 34 |
Butler | 43 | "1" | 61 | 62 | 67 | 75 | 75 | 42 | 40 |