How well all six models matched the 2000-01 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.97857 | 0.94885 | 0.92537 | 11,9,4 | 2.4310 |
PR2 | 0.87500 | 0.90962 | 0.91506 | 8,6,8 | 2.9048 |
50T | 0.91071 | 0.93269 | 0.93606 | 9,8,5 | 2.4952 |
LN2 | 0.96964 | 0.97654 | 0.90903 | 13,7,4 | 2.5524 |
ZPF | 0.94643 | 0.98000 | 0.92360 | 7,14,9 | 2.4000 |
MCB | 0.79107 | 0.81577 | 0.85512 | 5,6,3 | 4.0952 |
OCC | 0.89643 | 0.90538 | 0.87612 | 6,9,3 | 3.3810 |
Commentary: Every model experienced relatively large average differences this year; PR2 had its second highest total ever, while also recording its fourth lowest SCC-15 value - and LN2 had its third worst SCC-35 result. In fact, all of the models in the table above (MCB's SCC-35 value was 'average' for that model) recorded lower than usual SCC-35 values this year as well. The primary reason behind these dramatic swings, with regards to SCC-35 values, is because there were six teams, in the 'last 10' (#26-#35), that were seriously 'mispredicted' (by 6 or more positions - by all six models) and this impacted the resulting SCC-35 values quite significantly. (The six teams are: Indiana, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Alabama, Xavier and Georgia Tech.)
The PR2 model was only off by one place, with regards to #28 (NIT champion) Tulsa, but the other five models varied from 2 to 5 to 8 upto 11 place discrepancies (for Tulsa), and the NIT runnerup (Alabama, tied for #33) was included in the 'list' of six incorrectly predicted teams mentioned above (though MCB was only 'off' by two positions - the most accurate prediction of the seven models listed here).
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Duke | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Arizona | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
MichiganSt | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Maryland | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Stanford | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Illinois | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Kansas | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
Kentucky | 8 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
Mississippi | 9 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 10 |
NorthCarolina | 10 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
BostonCollege | 11 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 12 |
UCLA | 12 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
Florida | 13 | 1 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
USC | 14 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 8 | 14 |
IowaSt | 15 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 21 | 21 |
Temple | 16 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 11 |
Georgetown | 17 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
Syracuse | 18 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 31 | 19 |
Oklahoma | 19 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 19 | 19 | 25 | 27 |
Gonzaga | 20 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 18 |
Virginia | 21 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 26 | 28 |
Cincinnati | 22 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 17 |
NotreDame | 23 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 20 |
StJoseph'sPA | 24 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 23 |
PennSt | 25 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 22 |
Texas | 26 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 34 | 30 |
Indiana | 27 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 34 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
Tulsa | 28 | "5" | 33 | 29 | 26 | 39 | 30 | 33 | 36 |
Iowa | 29 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 25 |
WakeForest | 30 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 29 | 35 |
FresnoSt | 31 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 19 | 26 |
Tennessee | 32 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 39 | 40 |
Alabama | 33T | "4" | 37 | 37 | 38 | 41 | 40 | 35 | 24 |
Butler | 33T | 1 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 24 | 32 |
Xavier | 35T | 0 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 52 | 52 | 42 | 65 |
UtahSt | 35T | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 23 | 32 |
GeorgiaSt | 35T | 1 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 29 |
Missouri | 38T | 1 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 45 | 41 |
OhioSt | 38T | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
GeorgiaTech | 40T | 0 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 45 | 45 | 52 | 49 |
Charlotte | 40T | 1 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 27 | 31 |
Wisconsin | 42T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 47 | 37 |
IndianaSt | 42T | 1 | 38 | 38 | 40 | 35 | 36 | 50 | 43 |
Kent | 44T | 1 | 36 | 35 | 37 | 33 | 34 | 40 | 42 |
Richmond | 44T | 1 | 61 | 62 | 68 | 75 | 75 | 54 | 47 |