How well all six models matched the 1999-2000 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.71786 | 0.88846 | 0.94524 | 11,8,2 | 2.2571 |
PR2 | 0.52500 | 0.82731 | 0.92185 | 7,8,5 | 2.8571 |
50T | 0.53214 | 0.83154 | 0.92297 | 6,10,3 | 2.8571 |
LN2 | 0.65357 | 0.87038 | 0.94440 | 10,11,1 | 2.2571 |
ZPF | 0.88571 | 0.94923 | 0.97003 | 10,7,8 | 1.8286 |
MCB | 0.66964 | 0.82692 | 0.89244 | 4,3,12 | 3.6000 |
OCC | 0.79527 | 0.93981 | 0.95651 | 5,11,7 | 2.2000 |
Commentary: The ZPF model was extremely accurate this year, as evidenced by its high SCC-35 value; the largest disagreement it had, with the final coaches' poll, was 5 spots (which occurred four times). It correctly placed Final Four participant North Carolina exactly (as the #11 team), and it also ranked the other #8 seed (besides UNC) who made the Final Four (Wisconsin) as the #11 team, which was fairly close to its final ranking: #16. The OCC model matched the ZPF model's performance almost as well (though the OCC SCC-15 value was not as close to the ZPF value as the other metrics listed in the table above). OCC matched Wisconsin's final poll rank exactly, and missed UNC by four places in a sort of reversal of how ZPF ranked these two outliers (for the other models). The 50T, PR2 and LN2 models had Wisconsin as their #4 (or #6) team, and UNC as their #5 team (or #7), possibly weighting their tournament wins too highly. Or perhaps, the voters back then weren't as rewarding of post season success as more recent voters have been when ranking teams (that reach the Final Four) whose regular seasons were not strong enough to earn them a relatively high seed in the NCAA tournament. (The SCC-15 values for the 50T, LN2, PR2 and ZP2 models are the worse values seen so far; however, the reported average difference - of 1.8286 - is the third best for ZPF. This year also produced the lowest SCC-25 value for the 50T model, and its worst showing with respect to the 'score metric'.) ZPF also placed Stanford in the exact same position as the coaches did, in this final poll, where 50T, LN2, PR2 and ZP2 were less enthusiastic about the fact that Stanford lost its second round NCAA tournament game;MCB was only one rank higher, and OCC two positions above Stanford's rank in the final poll. ZPF also more accurately predicted where other teams, who had played well during the regular season, but won only one game in the NCAA tournament this year would be ranked, i.e. Cincinnati, Arizona, and Temple - though OCC was fairly close with regards to Arizona's final rank. (All models were reasonably accurate predicting with NIT champion Wake Forest would be ranked.)
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
MichiganSt | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Florida | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
IowaSt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
Duke | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Stanford | 5 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
OklahomaSt | 6 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Cincinnati | 7 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 13 |
Arizona | 8 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 9 |
Tulsa | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 7 |
Temple | 10 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
NorthCarolina | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
Syracuse | 12 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 |
LSU | 13 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
Tennessee | 14 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 |
Purdue | 15 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 12 |
Wisconsin | 16 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
OhioSt | 17 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 20 | 17 |
StJohn's | 18 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 27 | 19 |
Oklahoma | 19 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 20 |
MiamiFL | 20 | 2 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 28 | 18 |
Texas | 21 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 24 |
Kentucky | 22 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 23 | 25 |
UCLA | 23 | 2 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 21 |
Gonzaga | 24 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 16 | 22 |
Maryland | 25 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 23 |
Connecticut | 26 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 26 |
SetonHall | 27 | 2 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
Auburn | 28 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 27 |
Indiana | 29 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 31 |
Kansas | 30 | 1 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 24 | 29 |
Illinois | 31 | 1 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 21 | 28 |
Pepperdine | 32 | 1 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 39 |
Dayton | 33 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 38 | 42 | 37 |
WakeForest | 34 | "5" | 34 | 32 | 31 | 34 | 32 | 37 | 33 |
FresnoSt | 35 | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 43 | 42 |
Oregon | 36 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 34 | 34 |
Utah | 37T | 1 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
Butler | 37T | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 35 | 45 |
Vanderbilt | 39T | 0 | 60 | 62 | 69 | 82 | 82 | 55 | 47 |
DePaul | 39T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 38 |
Arkansas | 41 | 0 | 49 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 43 | 52 | 44 |
BallSt | 42T | 0 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 52 | 52 | 47 | 87 |
LALafayette | 42T | 0 | 58 | 57 | 54 | 56 | 56 | 66 | 129 |
UtahSt | 42T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 36 | 36 |