How well all six models matched the 1998-99 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.96786 | 0.96077 | 0.96755 | 11,7,5 | 1.9048 |
PR2 | 0.91607 | 0.94308 | 0.95864 | 10,6,6 | 2.2095 |
50T | 0.91429 | 0.95308 | 0.96232 | 9,4,6 | 2.1524 |
LN2 | 0.95357 | 0.95962 | 0.96690 | 12,2,6 | 1.8000 |
ZPF | 0.98750 | 0.96962 | 0.97003 | 8,14,4 | 1.8095 |
MCB | 0.86428 | 0.81385 | 0.86828 | 3,5,6 | 3.8095 |
OCC | 0.89821 | 0.84923 | 0.91382 | 10,4,4 | 3.0381 |
Commentary: All models (except for MCB and OCC) predicted where the top 35 teams would appear in the final poll quite accurately this year, given that all five models had SCC-35 values > 0.958! ZP2 had its second highest SCC-35 value ever this year, and the LN2 and ZPF models recorded their third highest value as well. These same five models matched the top 8 teams perfectly, and ZPF recorded the highest SCC-15 value of any model ever, only missing four teams by one place - and the teams who tied for #12, by 'half a place'; it was also fifth smallest average difference for ZPF as well. (ZPF also only missed NIT champion California's final ranking by one spot, with the other six models being off by one of the values in the 2 through 6 range.) The ZP2 and LN2 model's average differences were their fifth and sixth lowest ever, but the MCB model only matched 14 teams within two ranks of their actual positions - which is its lowest such overall total seen so far.
OCC had trouble with the two unranked teams (Oklahoma and Missouri State) that won two NCAA tournament games; it was off by 11 places for the Sooners, and 5 for State, the former significantly impacting the SCC-25 value for the OCC model.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Connecticut | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Duke | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
MichiganSt | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
OhioSt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
StJohn's | 5T | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
Kentucky | 5T | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Auburn | 7 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
Maryland | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
Stanford | 9 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
Utah | 10 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
Cincinnati | 11 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
MiamiFL | 12T | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 |
Gonzaga | 12T | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 11 |
Temple | 14 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 9 |
Iowa | 15 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
Arizona | 16 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 25 | 21 |
Florida | 17 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 15 |
NorthCarolina | 18 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 29 | 25 |
Oklahoma | 19 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 19 | 30 |
MiamiOH | 20 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 20 |
UCLA | 21 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 33 | 28 |
Purdue | 22 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
Kansas | 23 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 21 | 22 |
MissouriSt | 24 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 29 |
Arkansas | 25 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 19 |
Indiana | 26 | 1 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 20 | 18 |
OklahomaSt | 27 | 1 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 27 |
Wisconsin | 28 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 33 |
Charlotte | 29 | 1 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 26 |
ColCharleston | 30 | 0 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 36 | 32 |
NewMexico | 31 | 1 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 29 | 29 | 35 | 23 |
Detroit | 32 | 1 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 28 | 34 |
California | 33 | "5" | 36 | 31 | 29 | 40 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
Texas | 34T | 0 | 44 | 44 | 43 | 39 | 40 | 53 | 38 |
Syracuse | 34T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 38 | 39 | 37 | 36 |
Creighton | 34T | 1 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 31 |
Tennessee | 37 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 23 | 24 |
Louisville | 38T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 42 | 40 | 41 |
WeberSt | 38T | 1 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 41 | 37 |
MurraySt | 38T | 0 | 51 | 51 | 49 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 42 |
Minnesota | 41T | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 45 | 45 | 46 | 46 |
NewMexicoSt | 41T | 0 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 56 |
Clemson | 43 | "4" | 45 | 43 | 47 | 41 | 41 | 47 | 40 |
Missouri | 44 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 44 | 44 | 42 | 47 |