How well all six models matched the 1997-98 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.96071 | 0.96538 | 0.93053 | 13,3,4 | 2.4666 |
PR2 | 0.96786 | 0.97000 | 0.93165 | 10,7,4 | 2.4666 |
50T | 0.96786 | 0.97500 | 0.95270 | 10,11,2 | 2.0952 |
LN2 | 0.96974 | 0.97385 | 0.91601 | 14,7,5 | 2.1524 |
ZPF | 0.92143 | 0.95154 | 0.91466 | 12,10,3 | 2.1905 |
MCB | 0.83750 | 0.72615 | 0.78128 | 9,3,6 | 3.1490 |
OCC | 0.96964 | 0.97173 | 0.90812 | 11,7,5 | 2.4000 |
Commentary: The first four models in the table above (and OCC) had very high SCC-15 values (this being the third best such value for OCC), and ZPF joined those five in the 'strong SCC-25 value category' as well! (The 50T model had the highest SCC-35 value this year - where all models, except the MCB model, performed quite well.) The LN2 model predicted 26 teams' ranks that were only off by 2 or fewer ranking positions; ZPF had one fewer. 50T had the smallest average rank difference, with LN2 and ZPF right behind it; ZP2 and PR2 were (unusually) appreciably larger than all three of the aforementioned models (with 'earned' those relatively low averages). LN2 had 14 perfect rank matches, 13 for ZP2, and 12 for ZPF - all quite impressive (on the whole). NIT Champion Minnesota was ranked #29 in the final poll, and the 50T and ZPF models had them as #28, and OCC predicted them to be #31; however, the other models had them 6, 8, 8 and 19 positions lower in the predictive ranking.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Kentucky | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Utah | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
NorthCarolina | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Stanford | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
Duke | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Arizona | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Connecticut | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Kansas | 8 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Purdue | 9 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
MichiganSt | 10 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
RhodeIsland | 11 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
UCLA | 12 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
Syracuse | 13 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 13 |
Cincinnati | 14 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
Maryland | 15 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15 |
Princeton | 16 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 11 |
Michigan | 17 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
WestVirginia | 18 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 18 |
SouthCarolina | 19 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 32 | 22 |
Mississippi | 20 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 25 | 23 |
NewMexico | 21 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
Arkansas | 22 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 |
Valparaiso | 23 | 2 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 40 | 25 |
Washington | 24 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 27 | 24 |
TCU | 25 | 0 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 15 | 26 |
Illinois | 26 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 21 |
Xavier | 27 | 0 | 34 | 36 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 30 |
Charlotte | 28 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 28 |
Minnesota | 29 | "5" | 37 | 35 | 28 | 37 | 28 | 48 | 31 |
OklahomaSt | 30 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 22 | 27 |
Clemson | 31 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 47 | 47 | 41 | 50 |
IllinoisSt | 32 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 29 |
StJohn's | 33 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 46 | 46 | 44 | 41 |
Indiana | 34T | 1 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 29 | 42 |
Massachusetts | 34T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 41 | 42 | 46 | 36 |
Detroit | 34T | 1 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 26 | 45 |
GWashington | 37 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 40 | 41 | 43 | 35 |
NArizona | 38 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 60 | 45 | 45 | 57 | 40 |
FloridaSt | 39T | 1 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 43 |
Oklahoma | 39T | 0 | 50 | 49 | 48 | 39 | 40 | 55 | 34 |
UtahSt | 39T | 0 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 49 | 49 | 51 | 53 |
Iona | 39T | 0 | 46 | 46 | 46 | 48 | 48 | 35 | 52 |
PennSt | 43T | "4" | 47 | 47 | 49 | 43 | 39 | 56 | 37 |
Temple | 43T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 33 |
Georgia | 45 | "3" | 49 | 50 | 58 | 61 | 68 | 54 | 48 |
MiamiFL | 46T | 0 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 81 |
MurraySt | 46T | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 33 | 38 |