How well all six models matched the 1996-97 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.89286 | 0.93038 | 0.96057 | 5,7,11 | 2.2571 |
PR2 | 0.82143 | 0.92846 | 0.95819 | 5,4,15 | 2.4000 |
50T | 0.83393 | 0.93423 | 0.96352 | 4,9,11 | 2.2000 |
LN2 | 0.90179 | 0.90577 | 0.94475 | 4,10,8 | 2.4857 |
ZPF | 0.83929 | 0.91808 | 0.95049 | 8,3,7 | 2.2286 |
MCB | 0.42857 | 0.78500 | 0.85189 | 6,9,2 | 3.8857 |
OCC | 0.88383 | 0.94538 | 0.96548 | 7,10,7 | 2.0000 |
Commentary: Every model (except MCB and OCC) matched the top 4 teams exactly, but the 50T & LN2 models didn't match ranks exactly with any other teams, while the ZP2 & PR2 models matched just one other team this year whereas MCB, OCC and ZPF had 6, 7, and 8 'perfect matches', respectively. (These were all time lows, for the number of exact matches, for the aformentioned four models with only 4 or matches.) The OCC prediction model had the lowest average difference (of all 7 models) and its best SCC-35 value so far, and there were 15 teams whose predicted ranks were off by 2 positions, according to the PR2 model. The PR2 and 50T models experienced their fifth best SCC-35 values this year, and the ZP2 had its sixth highest, while the SCC-15 values for the PR2, and MCB, models were their second - and lowest - values ever.
The 50T & MCB models predicted NIT champion Michigan only one spot lower than their rank in the final poll (#24), whereas the other models had then 3, 4, 6, 6, and 12 ranks lower. All models were more accurate ranking NIT runner-up Florida State: the average difference was roughly 3 places across all six models - with MCB (again) only being off by one (with regards to FSU's final rank - in 1997).
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Arizona | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Kentucky | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Minnesota | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
NorthCarolina | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Kansas | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Utah | 6 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
UCLA | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Clemson | 8 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
WakeForest | 9 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
Louisville | 10 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 8 |
Duke | 11 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Stanford | 12 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 8 | 15 |
IowaSt | 13 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 11 |
SouthCarolina | 14 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 29 | 19 |
Providence | 15 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
Cincinnati | 16 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
StJoseph'sPA | 17 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
California | 18 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 13 | 18 |
NewMexico | 19 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
Texas | 20 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 23 |
ColCharleston | 21 | 1 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 24 | 22 |
Xavier | 22 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 20 |
BostonCollege | 23 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 28 | 24 |
Michigan | 24 | "5" | 30 | 28 | 25 | 36 | 30 | 25 | 27 |
Colorado | 25 | 1 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 35 | 25 |
Iowa | 26T | 1 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 29 |
Villanova | 26T | 1 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 21 |
Chattanooga | 28 | 2 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 43 | 30 |
Illinois | 29 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 26 |
Georgia | 30 | 0 | 34 | 35 | 32 | 35 | 32 | 36 | 34 |
Tulsa | 31 | 1 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
Maryland | 32 | 0 | 33 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 32 |
Purdue | 33 | 1 | 35 | 33 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 38 | 28 |
FloridaSt | 34 | "4" | 36 | 36 | 36 | 39 | 38 | 33 | 37 |
Marquette | 35 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 36 |
CoppinSt | 36 | 1 | 45 | 44 | 51 | 34 | 36 | 70 | 42 |
Temple | 37T | 1 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 27 | 41 |
RhodeIsland | 37T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 44 | 44 | 32 | 47 |
Mississippi | 39 | 0 | 44 | 45 | 44 | 50 | 50 | 46 | 84 |
Wisconsin | 40 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 45 | 46 |
Oklahoma | 41T | 0 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 54 | 54 | 44 | 79 |
Charlotte | 41T | 1 | 31 | 31 | 33 | 31 | 33 | 31 | 31 |
Princeton | 41T | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 38 |
Indiana | 44T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 |
Hawaii | 44T | 1 | 64 | 65 | 67 | 74 | 74 | 56 | 63 |
IllinoisSt | 44T | 0 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 34 | 45 |