How well all six models matched the 1995-96 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.94464 | 0.96923 | 0.94461 | 8,10,9 | 2.0571 |
PR2 | 0.96607 | 0.97615 | 0.95357 | 9,12,9 | 1.8000 |
50T | 0.96607 | 0.97769 | 0.94797 | 8,12,10 | 1.8571 |
LN2 | 0.91964 | 0.97211 | 0.97654 | 7,11,9 | 1.5429 |
ZPF | 0.88393 | 0.94731 | 0.97164 | 13,4,7 | 1.7143 |
MCB | 0.89107 | 0.81731 | 0.77584 | 8,6,2 | 4.4857 |
OCC | 0.88214 | 0.90731 | 0.94558 | 6,8,6 | 2.5143 |
Commentary: Every model (except MCB) had exceptionally high SCC-35 values (and all but ZPF and OCC also had quite high SCC-15 & SCC-25 values as well!) this year - and this is the best such value for the ZPF model, and the third highest for LN2 that have been observed! The LN2 model recorded its third lowest average differences, while the ZPF, 50T and PR2 models produced their fourth lowest averages. 50T correctly predicted 30 teams (out of the top 35) to be within 2 ranks (or less) of the final poll results, and that is one of highest such totals ever seen; PR2 also predicted 30 teams as accurately this year. However, the ZPF model had the largest number of exact matches this year, at 13, and placed 24 (of the top 35) teams within 2 places of their final rank. (LN2 & ZP2 had 27, OCC had 20, and MCB only 16.) For the eight teams that LN2 was off by more than 2 positions, five of those were only 3 places further away (from the actual final poll position), one was four, one was five (see below), and the teams that tied for 34th place were '3.5' and '5.5' places away, respectively.
The NIT champion was ranked #31, but only the ZPF and 50T models had Nebraska 1 or 2 away from that rank; the other models had them either 4 (ZP2, OCC & PR2), 5 (LN2) or 25 (MCB) places lower. NIT runnerup St. Joe's ended up tied for 34th place, and LN2 and ZPF had them at #38, OCC at #39, and the other models placed them from #45 (PR2) downto #60 (MCB). However, OCC did more accurately predict where the other NIT participants, who appeared in this year's final poll, would be ranked, but it is very rare to have 6 teams who played in the NIT receive 1 or more votes (in the final poll).
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
Kentucky | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Massachusetts | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Syracuse | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
MississippiSt | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
Kansas | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Cincinnati | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Georgetown | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Connecticut | 8 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
WakeForest | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
TexasTech | 10 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Arizona | 11 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
Utah | 12 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
GeorgiaTech | 13 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
Louisville | 14 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
Purdue | 15 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
Georgia | 16 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 21 | 14 | 19 |
Villanova | 17 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
Arkansas | 18 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 28 | 27 |
UCLA | 19 | 0 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 31 | 26 |
IowaSt | 20 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 29 | 17 |
VirginiaTech | 21 | 1 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 24 | 20 |
Iowa | 22 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
Marquette | 23 | 1 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 |
NorthCarolina | 24 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 22 |
NewMexico | 25 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
PennSt | 26 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 29 |
Stanford | 27 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 23 |
Memphis | 28 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 32 | 28 |
EMichigan | 29 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 23 | 25 |
Texas | 30 | 1 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 32 |
Nebraska | 31 | "5" | 35 | 35 | 29 | 36 | 30 | 56 | 35 |
BostonCollege | 32 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 26 | 31 |
Temple | 33 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 30 | 31 | 37 | 30 |
StJoseph'sPA | 34T | "4" | 47 | 45 | 48 | 38 | 38 | 60 | 39 |
GWashington | 34T | 0 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 42 |
ArkLittleRock | 36 | "0" | 69 | 68 | 74 | 81 | 81 | 58 | 38 |
SantaClara | 37T | 1 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 46 |
NewOrleans | 37T | 0 | 50 | 50 | 49 | 39 | 39 | 56 | 41 |
Tulane | 39T | "3" | 43 | 47 | 53 | 51 | 67 | 41 | 47 |
Drexel | 39T | 1 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 33 | 34 | 19 | 33 |
Duke | 41T | 0 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 39 | 43 |
Michigan | 41T | 0 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 38 | 52 |
Princeton | 43T | 1 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 34 | 35 | 46 | 36 |
ColCharleston | 43T | "1" | 62 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 52 | 37 |
WIGreenBay | 45T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 35 | 40 |
Davidson | 45T | "0" | 63 | 63 | 71 | 82 | 82 | 42 | 45 |