How well all six models matched the 1994-95 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.90536 | 0.89346 | 0.86569 | 8,8,1 | 3.3429 |
PR2 | 0.94643 | 0.91423 | 0.88529 | 11,7,3 | 2.8857 |
50T | 0.93214 | 0.88154 | 0.87185 | 10,6,4 | 3.2286 |
LN2 | 0.88750 | 0.88077 | 0.89496 | 7,6,4 | 3.4286 |
ZPF | 0.78929 | 0.82846 | 0.88389 | 4,7,4 | 3.8000 |
MCB | 0.94643 | 0.76846 | 0.87997 | 6,7,5 | 3.4286 |
OCC | 0.85179 | 0.91962 | 0.81474 | 4,10,6 | 3.9143 |
Commentary: The ZPF model didn't think as highly of Memphis (#14) and Tulsa (#15) as the other models, which helped to produce the lowest SCC-15 value in the table above. MCB did likewise with Syracuse (#17), Missouri (#18) and Villanova (#23), lowering its SCC-25 value. However, the six systems (excluding OCC) were all relatively close with their final SCC-35 values, though Minnesota (#33) and Pennsylvania (#34) weren't placed as highly by the ZP2, ZPF,and 50T models, and the LN2 model had trouble validating Virginia Tech's success (as the NIT Champion - finishing as the #28 in the final coaches' poll). The average difference for all models, except MCB and PR2, was higher this year than any other one (so far), and the SCC-35 values were: the lowest ever, for LN2, ZP2, OCC and ZPF; second lowest for the 50T and PR2 models; but 10th highest, between 1993-2017, for the MCB model.
Team | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
UCLA | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Arkansas | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
NorthCarolina | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
OklahomaSt | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Kentucky | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Connecticut | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Massachusetts | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
Virginia | 8 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 |
WakeForest | 9 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
Kansas | 10 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Maryland | 11 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
MississippiSt | 12 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 13 |
ArizonaSt | 13 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Memphis | 14 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 15 | 18 |
Tulsa | 15 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 16 | 22 |
Georgetown | 16 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
Syracuse | 17 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 28 | 21 |
Missouri | 18 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 33 | 23 |
Purdue | 19 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 14 |
MichiganSt | 20 | 0 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 19 |
Alabama | 21 | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 20 |
Utah | 22 | 1 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
Villanova | 23 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 29 | 25 |
Texas | 24 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 18 | 28 |
Arizona | 25 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 26 |
IowaSt | 26 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 17 |
MiamiOH | 27 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 31 | 33 | 31 | 34 |
VirginiaTech | 28 | "5" | 32 | 28 | 24 | 38 | 31 | 32 | 29 |
Wkentucky | 29 | 1 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
Manhattan | 30 | 1 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 26 | 42 |
Oklahoma | 31 | 0 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 32 | 29 | 34 | 35 |
Stanford | 32 | 1 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 26 | 26 | 30 | 24 |
Minnesota | 33 | 0 | 51 | 50 | 50 | 46 | 46 | 45 | 55 |
Pennsylvania | 34 | 0 | 50 | 49 | 49 | 42 | 42 | 40 | 48 |
Tulane | 35 | 1 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 30 | 32 | 36 | 31 |
Cincinnati | 36 | 1 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 20 | 30 |
WeberSt | 37 | 1 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 45 |
BYU | 38 | 0 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 45 | 45 | 43 | 54 |
Oregon | 39T | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 36 |
Ohio | 39T | "1" | 63 | 63 | 67 | 73 | 73 | 50 | 41 |
Marquette | 41T | "4" | 39 | 39 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 44 | 39 |
StLouis | 41T | 1 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 17 | 44 |
TexasTech | 43 | "0" | 74 | 72 | 79 | 84 | 83 | 60 | 78 |