How well all six models matched the 1992-93 final coaches' poll.
Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)
SCC15 | SCC25 | SCC35 | 0,1,2 | Average | |
ZP2 | 0.91071 | 0.94231 | 0.91589 | 12,2,9 | 2.1429 |
PR2 | 0.88929 | 0.94692 | 0.91786 | 10,7,5 | 2.4571 |
50T | 0.88929 | 0.93269 | 0.91870 | 11,7,5 | 2.3714 |
LN2 | 0.90714 | 0.85731 | 0.91436 | 10,5,7 | 2.6571 |
ZPF | 0.94821 | 0.89231 | 0.92962 | 10,4,7 | 2.5429 |
MCB | 0.94286 | 0.93808 | 0.90357 | 8,11,6 | 2.7143 |
OCC | 0.88393 | 0.91346 | 0.88039 | 4,13,3 | 3.0000 |
Commentary: The first year of the final coaches' poll (since 1975) exposed some very disparate prediction behavior for the six models included on this page. This was a strong year for MCB (its 4th best SCC-25 value, 7th best SCC-35 value, along with the 6th best average difference) whereas this is the lowest SCC-25 value, and third highest overall average difference for LN2. The 50T model was only a little below its average performance, across most of the metrics in the table above, and ZP2 was slightly more below its average performance (than the 50T model was).
Most of the models didn't rank NIT runner-up Georgetown as highly as the coaches did, but PR2 did have NIT champion Minnesota ranked exactly (as the #25 team); MCB was off by 1, 50T by 2, ZP2 by 3, and the other three were 7, 10 and 13 places away, respectively. This year was MCB's strongest showing when compared with the 50T, LN2, and ZPF; they all performed poorly in 1994-95, and only in 2003-04, and 2007-08, was MCB's overall average difference smaller than one other model's average. Highlighting MCB's proficiency this year are its perfect matches for #9 Duke, #11 Seton Hall, #18 Virginia, #23 Xavier and #30 St. John's. (MCB was also quite close with NIT champion #25 Minnesota.) ZP2, PR2, 50T and MCB predicted #14 Wake Forest close to where they were ranked, and MCB was too generous ranking #16 Western Kentucky.
TeamName | Poll | Wins | ZP2 | PR2 | 50T | LN2 | ZPF | MCB | OCC |
NorthCarolina | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Michigan | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Kentucky | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Kansas | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Indiana | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Cincinnati | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
FloridaSt | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
Vanderbilt | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
Duke | 9 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 14 |
Arkansas | 10 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
SetonHall | 11 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
Arizona | 12 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 16 |
Temple | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
WakeForest | 14 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 13 | 12 |
Louisville | 15 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
Wkentucky | 16 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 17 |
California | 17 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 |
Virginia | 18 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
Iowa | 19 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 18 |
Utah | 20 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 22 | 19 |
GWashington | 21 | 2 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
Massachusetts | 22 | 1 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
Xavier | 23 | 1 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 25 |
UCLA | 24 | 1 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
Minnesota | 25 | "5" | 28 | 26 | 23 | 38 | 33 | 26 | 35 |
OklahomaSt | 26T | 1 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 22 |
NewMexicoSt | 26T | 1 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 31 | 23 |
GeorgiaTech | 28 | 0 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 29 | 43 | 31 |
NewOrleans | 29 | 0 | 26 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 30 |
StJohn's | 30 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 27 |
BYU | 31 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 25 | 32 |
Tulane | 32 | 1 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 27 | 27 | 33 | 26 |
Georgetown | 33 | "4" | 40 | 40 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 44 | 40 |
Chattanooga | 34 | 0 | 53 | 53 | 51 | 47 | 47 | 45 | 56 |
Illinois | 35 | 1 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 33 |
BallSt | 36 | 0 | 61 | 61 | 58 | 43 | 43 | 67 | 47 |
RhodeIsland | 37T | 1 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 37 | 37 |
Purdue | 37T | 0 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 37 | 40 | 34 |
Marquette | 39 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 29 | 38 |
JacksonSt | 40 | "1" | 91 | 94 | 92 | 75 | 75 | 92 | 41 |
Clemson | 41T | "1" | 73 | 76 | 79 | 81 | 81 | 76 | 63 |
Nebraska | 41T | 0 | 50 | 49 | 47 | 52 | 52 | 50 | 69 |
Memphis | 43 | 0 | 41 | 42 | 39 | 45 | 45 | 46 | 49 |
SantaClara | 44 | 1 | 39 | 38 | 44 | 35 | 36 | 75 | 43 |
NewMexico | 45T | 0 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 39 |
UWMilwaukee | 45T | NI | 97 | 96 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 77 | 98 |