How well all six models matched the 2017-18 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.89107 0.96231 0.94034 14,8,7 1.7714
PR2 0.76250 0.89154 0.93964 12,7,7 2.1714
50T 0.81786 0.90923 0.82815 11,7,7 2.9714
LN2 0.88929 0.94692 0.97017 9,8,8 2.0857
 ZPF 0.89286 0.97038 0.98389 16,6,7 1.2286
MCB 0.76964 0.92423 0.66625 6,12,6 3.3143
OCC 0.92727 0.92180 0.95951 11,8,5 2.0857

Commentary: ZPF had its best year, with 16 exact matches and its lowest average difference - almost 0.5 lower than its previous best (in 2016-17). ZP2 also reached a few milestones, with its second highest exact match total (14), and its 3rd lowest average difference. Virginia was the top seed in the NCAA tournament, and #1 in both polls, however, they lost their opening game to a #16 seed (UMBC - by 20 points!) and surprisingly only dropped to the #5 position in the final coaches' poll. (OCC ranked them only two positions higher than that, and ZPF only four; every other model varied from 6 to 14 positions higher.) In 2012-13, Gonzaga was #1, lost their second round game, but plummeted to the #12 position, so perhaps those who cast votes this past year thought more highly of Virginia's strong season (in the ACC) over Gonzaga's run through the West Coast Conference several years ago. UMBC was ranked slightly lower, than in the final poll, by most models; the MCB model ranked them so much lower, that UMBC (by itself) lowered MCB's avg. difference by a full 'point'!

Almost all the systems were only off by 2 or so positions, with regards to NIT champion Penn State, and likewise with NIT runner-up Utah; St. Mary's was actually ranked higher in the final poll (than predicted below) even though they only earned two NIT wins. However, since they were somehow not selected to the NCAA tournament, and were the #24 team before these tournaments began, the voters still thought highly enough to rank them above Utah (#33 versus #36), but the models below had their ranks essentially in the other order.


Team Name Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
Villanova 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Michigan 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Kansas 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Duke 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Virginia 5 0 11 15 13 19 9 11 7
TexasTech 6 3 6 6 6 6 6 7 5
Loyola-Chic. 7 4 5 5 5 5 10 6 6
Xavier 8 1 9 9 9 9 8 14 9
Purdue 9 2 8 8 8 8 7 5 10
Gonzaga 10 2 7 7 7 7 5 8 8
MichiganSt 11 1 10 12 11 11 11 9 11
Cincinnati 12 1 12 14 15 16 13 10 18
WestVirginia 13 2 13 13 14 12 14 12 12
NorthCarolina 14 1 14 16 16 15 12 19 16
Clemson 15 2 18 18 18 17 15 16 14
Tennessee 16 1 19 19 19 19 16 21 19
Kentucky 17 2 17 17 17 18 17 15 17
FloridaSt 18 3 15 10 10 13 18 13 13
KansasSt 19 3 16 11 12 14 19 18 15
Nevada 20 2 20 20 20 20 23 17 20
OhioSt 21 1 21 21 21 21 20 20 21
Houston 22 1 24 24 24 24 21 23 22
Auburn 23 1 22 23 23 25 22 22 23
TexasA&M 24 2 23 22 22 22 25 24 24
WichitaSt 25 0 27 27 27 27 27 26 30
Syracuse 26 2 25 25 26 23 26 25 29
Arizona 27 0 26 26 25 26 24 30 28
RhodeIsland 28 1 28 28 29 28 28 29 25
Florida 29 1 29 29 30 29 29 28 26
PennSt 30 "5" 32 30 28 36 30 32 35
Butler 31 1 31 32 32 32 33 31 33
Buffalo 32 1 33 33 33 30 31 34 31
SetonHall 33 1 30 31 31 31 32 27 32
UMBC 33 1 51 44 55 35 36 80 45
StMary'sCA 33 "2" 38 40 57 37 38 33 27
Utah 36 "4" 36 36 38 40 39 46 38
Providence 37 0 50 49 47 42 42 65 40
MiamiFL 37 0 37 37 35 38 37 39 36
Creighton 39 0 41 41 40 41 41 36 39