How well all six models matched the 2016-17 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.98836 0.97692 0.98494 9,14,7 1.3143
PR2 0.97321 0.97154 0.98214 15,6,10 1.2571
50T 0.97857 0.95538 0.97626 14,9,5 1.2857
LN2 0.97857 0.97462 0.97780 15,8,6 1.3143
 ZPF 0.96429 0.96000 0.97080 12,7,7 1.6571
MCB 0.84286 0.90731 0.95105 5,12,3 2.4000
OCC 0.93393 0.96654 0.95203 3,16,8 2.1714

Commentary: Every system above (except ZPF) achieved its lowest average difference ever! ZP2, PR2, and 50T's averages were all between 0.4 and 0.6 smaller than their previous bests, while LN2 was roughly 0.1 smaller, and MCB exactly matched its previous lowest average (of 2.4). OCC achieved its fourth best sum of the three relevant SCC values (listed in the table above), with 16 teams being ranked +/- one position in the final poll; three exact matches, and eight more just off by two positions. (ZPF's best average difference occurred in 2017-18.)

Team Name Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
NorthCarolina 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
Gonzaga 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
Oregon 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
Kansas 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
Kentucky 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SouthCarolina 6 4 7 6 7 6 9 7 10
Arizona 7 2 6 7 6 7 6 11 7
Villanova 8 1 9 10 8 10 7 10 6
UCLA 9 2 8 9 9 8 8 8 8
Florida 10 3 10 8 10 9 10 6 9
WestVirginia 11 2 12 12 13 12 13 9 12
Baylor 12 2 11 11 12 11 12 13 11
Duke 13 1 13 14 11 13 11 18 14
Louisville 14 1 16 16 15 16 14 17 16
Purdue 15 2 14 15 14 15 15 12 13
Wisconsin 16 2 18 18 20 17 18 15 17
Michigan 17 2 20 19 23 21 23 20 19
Xavier 18 3 15 13 16 14 17 22 15
Butler 19 2 17 17 18 19 20 16 18
NotreDame 20 1 19 20 17 18 16 27 20
WichitaSt 21 1 24 24 25 24 24 14 23
Cincinnati 22 1 21 21 21 20 19 19 21
SMU 23 0 25 25 19 23 21 26 28
FloridaSt 24 1 22 22 22 22 22 23 22
IowaSt 25 1 23 23 24 25 25 24 24
StMary'sCA 26 1 26 26 26 26 26 21 25
Virginia 27 1 27 27 27 27 27 25 26
USC 28 1 32 33 33 30 31 33 30
MTSU 29 1 28 28 28 28 28 28 27
Arkansas 30 1 29 30 30 31 32 29 31
RhodeIsland 31 1 30 31 31 32 33 30 39
Northwestern 32 1 31 32 32 29 29 32 29
MichiganSt 33 1 34 34 34 33 34 40 40
OklahomaSt 34T 0 39 39 39 39 39 34 38
Dayton 34T 0 37 37 37 42 42 36 45
Maryland 36T 0 38 38 38 41 41 39 44
VACommonwealth 36T 0 40 40 40 45 45 41 75
TCU 38 "5" 33 29 29 34 30 35 32