How well all six models matched the 2015-16 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.84732 0.93865 0.92411 6,11,7 2.8000
PR2 0.83839 0.90442 0.90647 7,11,4 3.0286
50T 0.88304 0.93750 0.92930 7,11,4 2.6286
LN2 0.93304 0.96942 0.93546 9,14,2 2.2571
 ZPF 0.96339 0.98481 0.94890 9,16,3 1.8667
MCB 0.73125 0.74788 0.73793 7,5,5 4.9810
OCC 0.86339 0.88827 0.90637 6,9,6 3.1905

Commentary: Though MCB had its highest (i.e. its worst) average difference, it was the only model that matched the top 6 exactly! The ZPF model had one of its strongest years, posting its alltime highest SCC-25 value (5th best of any model!), and its 3rd best SCC-15 value; and it was only off by one on 16 (LN2 also achieved its highest total in this category this year as well: 14) of the top 35 teams, matching 9 final poll positions exactly - specifically #7 Michigan State, where all other models were off by at least 3 positions (except for OCC - off by one), and West Virginia, where the closest competitor was 3 positions away. ZPF was only off by 1 with #17 Notre Dame (and MCB was off by 2 for the Irish), but the other five models were 6 or more away. #28 California was predicted to be #41 by the ZPF model, and only the 50T model prediction was less than 10 positions away from where the coaches voted them. Likewise, with #31 Texas; all models were at least 7 spots off - with regards to the Longhorns' final rank.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
Villanova 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
NorthCarolina 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Kansas 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
Oklahoma 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
Virginia 5 3 5 5 5 6 6 5 6
Oregon 6 3 6 6 6 5 5 6 5
MichiganSt 7 0 13 14 12 10 7 16 8
MiamiFL 8 2 8 8 8 8 9 9 7
Indiana 9 2 9 10 10 9 10 7 9
Syracuse 10 4 7 7 7 7 8 8 12
Xavier 11 1 12 12 13 13 11 14 15
Maryland 12T 2 14 13 14 14 13 13 13
TexasA&M 12T 2 10 11 11 12 12 10 11
WestVirginia 14 0 19 19 18 17 14 20 21
IowaSt 15 2 17 16 17 15 18 18 14
Kentucky 16 1 15 17 16 16 15 17 17
NotreDame 17 3 11 9 9 11 16 15 10
Duke 18 2 16 15 15 18 20 12 16
Purdue 19 0 21 22 21 20 19 22 22
Utah 20 1 18 18 19 19 17 21 18
Gonzaga 21 2 20 20 20 21 22 11 19
Arizona 22 0 23 23 23 23 21 27 29
Wisconsin 23 2 22 21 22 22 23 24 20
Baylor 24 0 31 32 28 25 25 42 33
Iowa 25 1 24 24 25 24 24 23 23
WichitaSt 26 1 27 27 29 29 30 19 27
StJoseph'sPA 27 1 25 25 26 26 26 28 24
California 28 0 38 38 36 40 41 41 39
SetonHall 29 0 33 35 30 38 29 39 37
Providence 30 1 29 30 32 28 28 37 26
Texas 31 0 42 42 40 39 40 51 38
NorthernIowa 32 1 39 39 39 31 33 49 30
Connecticut 33 1 26 26 27 27 27 25 25
Butler 34T 1 28 29 31 34 36 26 34
GWashington 34T "5" 32 28 24 41 31 40 40
SFAustin 34T 1 37 37 38 30 32 29 28
VACommonwealth 37 1 30 31 33 32 34 31 32
Cincinnati 38 0 45 45 44 44 44 43 50
Valparaiso 39 "4" 40 40 41 42 42 38 41
Yale 40T 1 36 36 37 33 35 36 35
Hawaii 40T 1 35 34 35 36 38 30 42
StMary'sCA 40T "2" 46 53 62 73 73 35 31
ArkLittleRock 40T 1 34 33 34 35 37 34 36