How well all six models matched the 2012-13 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.90714 0.96577 0.95287 11,11,5 1.9429
PR2 0.93929 0.97115 0.95847 9,11,7 1.7429
50T 0.95000 0.97269 0.95987 7,11,8 2.0571
LN2 0.91071 0.96077 0.95875 9,9,7 2.0286
 ZPF 0.73750 0.92346 0.95217 6,6,9 2.3714
MCB 0.91071 0.59115 0.77248 8,5,2 4.7143
OCC 0.71696 0.90538 0.90189 7,9,2 2.9143

Commentary: Every model (except MCB and OCC) had an SCC-35 value greather than 0.95! (This was the worse year for MCB, as it achieved its smallest SCC-25 - and secpmc smallest SCC-35 - values along with its second highest average difference ever; this was probably due to poorly predicting #25 Florida Gulf Coast's final rank. OCC had #4 Wichita State at #13 - like ZPF - and ranked #12 Gonzaga as #6, #34 Illinois as #40 and California, who tied for #30, as #42.) ZPF ranked Final Four participant, and #9 seed, Wichita State as #13 primarily because the Shockers didn't receive any votes in the penultimate coaches' poll, and ZPF also ended up being the third worse predictor (of the seven models listed here) this year. (ZP2 had the Shockers as #10; two other systems predicted #8, and the other two at #6.) ZP2, PR2 correctly predicted 27 teams of the top 35 teams within 2 or fewer places of their actual, final poll positions: 50T predicted 26, LN2 predicted 25, ZPF predicted 21, OCC predicted 18, and MCB only 15.

#3 seed Marquette reached the Elite Eight, but since their first two games, against lower seeded teams, were won on last second shots, the coaches didn't place them higher than #11 - which only PR2 and 50T disagreed with by more than 1 rank. All 6 models (except ZPF and OCC) correctly placed Michigan State as #13, and Arizona as #14 (not ZPF); #18 Memphis was ranked correctly by 4 models, and plus or minus one spot by the other three. Two unheralded, Sweet Sixteen teams - LaSalle (a 13-seed - and play-in victor), and Florida Gulf Coast (the first such 15-seed!) - were ranked as the #24 and #25 teams in the final poll. All models had LaSalle 3 or 4 places higher, except OCC - which ranked LaSalle 3 places lower, and FGC was predicted 1-3 places higher according to five of the seven models; as with LaSalle, OCC ranked FGC 3 places below their final poll position. (MCB had FGC as #48, probably due to their relatively low power rating this season.) NIT champion Baylor tied for the #30 final poll position, and while 3 systems predicted they should be higher than that, two other models predicted lower, and the remaining two were close: PR2 ranked them as #31, and OCC as #32. NIT runner-up Iowa was predicted to be 2-4 places lower than their #38 final rank by every model except OCC, which ranked Iowa at #35.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
Louisville 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Michigan 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Syracuse 3 4 3 3 3 3 5 3 7
WichitaSt 4 4 10 6 6 8 13 8 13
Duke 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 4
OhioSt 6 3 5 5 5 4 3 7 3
Indiana 7 2 8 10 10 9 7 6 8
Kansas 8 2 6 9 8 7 6 9 5
Florida 9 3 7 7 7 6 10 4 10
MiamiFL 10 2 9 11 11 10 8 11 9
Marquette 11 3 11 8 9 11 12 12 11
Gonzaga 12 1 12 12 12 12 9 10 6
MichiganSt 13 2 13 13 13 13 11 13 12
Arizona 14 2 14 14 14 14 16 14 14
Oregon 15 2 17 17 17 19 20 15 15
StLouis 16 1 15 15 15 15 15 19 16
Georgetown 17 0 16 16 16 16 14 25 18
Memphis 18 1 18 18 19 17 18 18 17
NewMexico 19 0 19 19 18 18 17 27 20
KansasSt 20 0 21 21 21 22 19 34 23
Creighton 21 1 22 22 22 23 24 16 19
Wisconsin 22 0 26 26 26 24 23 31 29
VACommonwealth 23 1 23 24 24 25 26 17 21
LaSalle 24 2 20 20 20 20 21 21 27
FLGulfCoast 25 2 24 23 23 21 22 48 28
Butler 26 1 30 30 31 29 30 30 25
OklahomaSt 27 0 25 25 25 26 25 32 30
Mississippi 28 1 29 29 30 28 29 20 24
NorthCarolina 29 1 27 27 28 27 27 24 22
Baylor 30T "5" 36 31 27 39 28 40 32
California 30T 1 37 37 38 36 37 44 42
IowaSt 32 1 33 34 35 31 32 29 39
StMary'sCA 33 0 43 43 41 40 40 28 33
Illinois 34 1 34 35 36 35 36 36 40
ColoradoSt 35 1 28 28 29 30 31 23 26
Temple 36T 1 35 36 37 32 33 37 43
Pittsburgh 36T 0 38 38 34 38 39 22 31
Iowa 38 "4" 40 40 42 42 42 41 35
UCLA 39 0 41 41 39 41 41 43 34
Minnesota 40T 1 31 32 32 34 35 26 38
NotreDame 40T 0 42 42 40 43 43 39 36
Belmont 40T 0 45 45 45 44 44 45 37
WeberSt

40T

4-1
(2nd)
CIT
98

94

100

101

101

69

76