How well all six models matched the 2004-05 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.94643 0.97115 0.92262 15,5,4 2.3143
PR2 0.91250 0.95885 0.92416 9,10,5 2.5143
50T 0.95536 0.97577 0.93137 13,7,5 2.2286
LN2 0.96250 0.97500 0.92149 15,7,2 2.2571
 ZPF 0.87500 0.92577 0.90847 6,13,4 2.7429
MCB 0.84286 0.88769 0.86071 11,5,3 3.4286
OCC 0.83036 0.93462 0.89986 10,8,4 2.7143

Commentary: ZP2 matched the top 12 teams in the coaches poll (exactly!) as well as three more teams in the top 35, and so, along with the LN2 model, both matched the ranks of 15 team perfectly - which was the highest total ever (along with 2008-09) for the ZP2 model. (MCB matched 11,which turns out to be the second largest number that model's exact matches.)

#13 seed Vermont upset #4 seed Syracuse in the NCAA tournament this year, and the first five models listed correctly placed these two teams very close to their actual final ranking; likewise with #14 seed Bucknell, who upset #3 seed Kansas - though most models ranked Kansas slightly lower than the models did this year. Georgia Tech finished in a tie for being the 27th best team, and all models (except OCC, who predicted they'd be #26) agreed that they should be #27. Some of the models had NIT champion South Carolina above, and some below, their final ranking (#30), and four of the models had NIT runnerup (St. Joseph's) ranked between 2-4 spots below their final position (#35), and the other two models (50T and MCB) ranked them (9 and 15 places) lower than that.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
NorthCarolina 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Illinois 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Louisville 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
MichiganSt 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 6
Kentucky 5 3 5 5 5 5 4 5 4
Arizona 6 3 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
Duke 7 2 7 7 7 7 6 6 5
OklahomaSt 8 2 8 9 8 9 9 8 9
Washington 9 2 9 10 10 8 8 9 8
Wisconsin 10 3 10 8 9 10 11 10 10
WakeForest 11 1 11 12 12 11 10 12 11
WestVirginia 12 3 12 11 11 12 15 16 12
Villanova 13 2 15 15 15 16 20 11 14
Utah 14 2 13 13 13 13 14 13 13
Kansas 15 0 20 21 19 18 17 23 24
TexasTech 16 2 18 18 18 19 21 19 16 
Connecticut 17 1 17 17 17 17 16 17 18
Gonzaga 18 1 14 14 14 14 12 22 15
BostonCollege 19 1 16 16 16 15 13 20 17
Oklahoma 20 1 19 19 20 20 19 14 20
Syracuse 21 0 22 24 21 21 18 25 27
NCState 22 2 24 23 24 23 25 24 22
WIMilwaukee 23 2 23 22 23 22 24 18 19
Florida 24 1 21 20 22 24 22 15 21
Cincinnati 25 1 26 26 26 26 26 21 25
Pacific 26 1 25 25 25 25 23 26 23
GeorgiaTech 27T 1 27 27 27 27 27 27 26
Alabama 27T 0 32 34 31 29 28 29 31
Vermont 29 1 31 31 33 31 32 32 32
SouthCarolina 30 "5" 35 32 28 36 30 44 33
Texas 31 0 42 42 41 42 42 37 39
Iowa 32T 0 44 43 42 46 46 39 48
Minnesota 32T 0 45 44 43 45 45 46 46
SIllinois 32T 1 28 28 29 30 31 28 29
StJoseph'sPA 35 "4" 39 39 44 38 37 50 36
Bucknell 36 1 36 36 37 35 36 54 43
Nevada 37 1 29 29 30 28 29 30 28
UAB 38 1 33 33 34 33 34 36 42
IowaSt 39T 1 34 35 35 34 35 38 41
Pittsburgh 39T 0 37 37 36 37 38 35 34
NewMexico 41 0 41 41 40 40 40 34 37
Charlotte 42 0 40 40 39 39 39 45 35
Memphis 43 "3" 56 59 59 51 68 55 30