How well all six models matched the 2003-04 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.95357 0.98077 0.91485 11,11,4 2.1714
PR2 0.92321 0.96462 0.89762 5,12,6 2.6000
50T 0.93214 0.96923 0.84384 8,9,9 2.7143
LN2 0.92143 0.96615 0.96050 8,11,7 1.9429
 ZPF 0.93571 0.97231 0.95392 11,11,4 1.9429
MCB 0.91071 0.96038 0.92997 7,8,7 2.6286
OCC 0.91071 0.93462 0.89986 9,9,9 1.9714

Commentary: All models were fairly accurate with regards to the top 15 teams, and even more so with the top 25. However, UtahSt, who lost its conference championship by 1 point, and then lost its opening NIT game (on the road in Hawaii), and was ranked #33, after garnering 12 votes in the final coaches' poll (possibly for its outstanding 25-3 pre-tourney record), was ranked #62 by 50T, which seriously impacted its SCC-35 result. (This is the lowest SCC-35 for the 50T model so far.) ZP2 and PR2 ranked UtahSt as #52 and #51, respectively, which lowered their SCC-35 values - but not by as much (as that same statistic for the 50T model). The ZPF model, matched 11 of the top 35 exactly, and was off by one for another 11 teams, and matched the LN2 model for the lowest average difference (this year), but it ranked UtahSt as #44 whereas LN2 placed them as the #39 team. The OCC model did predict fairly accurately where Utah St. would be ranked - at #30. NIT Champion Michigan was ranked as the #32 in the final coaches' poll, and ZPF and ZP2 agreed with that assessment exactly; PR2 ranked them 31st, and the other four models disagreed with the coaches' poll between four and six positions (in both directions).

Even though the average difference for the MCB model is much higher than that same metric, evaluated for the LN2, ZP2 and ZPF models, the MCB average is the third lowest seen so far (and so it is not surprising that the SCC-35 metric for MCB is also its third best as well). Regarding the average differences reported above, this is the fourth highest for the 50T model; however, this year was also the fourth lowest difference for the OCC model. The SCC-25 values, for the MCB and ZPF models, are also the third and fourth highest values seen so far.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
Connecticut 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Duke 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 3
GeorgiaTech 3 5 2 2 2 2 2 4 4
OklahomaSt 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
StJoseph'sPA 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Stanford 6 1 8 8 8 8 6 9 6
Pittsburgh 7 2 7 7 7 7 7 6 9
Kentucky 8 1 9 10 10 11 9 12 10
Kansas 9 3 6 6 6 6 10 7 8
Texas 10 2 11 9 9 9 11 10 11
Illinois 11 2 12 14 13 12 12 11 12
Gonzaga 12 1 10 11 11 10 8 8 7
MississippiSt 13 1 13 15 15 16 13 14 15
Xavier 14 3 14 12 12 13 17 13 14
WakeForest 15 2 15 16 16 15 16 15 13
Wisconsin 16 1 17 17 17 17 14 16 16
Alabama 17 3 16 13 14 14 18 19 19
Cincinnati 18 1 18 18 18 18 15 17 18
Syracuse 19 2 19 19 19 19 19 21 17
NCState 20 1 20 21 21 22 20 22 20
Nevada 21 2 22 22 22 21 22 18 22
NorthCarolina 22 1 24 24 24 24 24 23 23
UAB 23 2 23 23 23 23 23 24 25
Maryland 24 1 25 25 25 25 25 26 24
Vanderbilt 25 2 21 20 20 20 21 20 21
SIllinois 26 0 36 36 36 35 36 33 36
Memphis 27 1 26 26 27 26 27 25 26
Providence 28 0 33 33 32 30 28 34 33
Arizona 29 0 35 35 34 28 26 36 31
BostonCollege 30 1 27 27 28 31 31 32 29
TexasTech 31 1 28 28 29 29 30 27 28
Michigan 32 "5" 32 31 26 36 32 38 37
UtahSt 33 "0" 52 54 62 39 44 46 30
DePaul 34 1 30 30 31 27 29 37 27
Pacific 35 1 34 34 35 34 35 40 35
Manhattan 36T 1 31 32 33 33 34 29 34
WMichigan 36T 0 38 38 38 38 39 30 40
SetonHall 38 1 29 29 30 32 33 28 32
AirForce 39T 0 46 46 46 43 42 47 43
UCF 39T 0 56 55 54 48 48 61 58
MichiganSt 41T 0 40 41 40 37 37 50 38
SouthCarolina 41T 0 45 45 44 49 49 45 59
LALafayette 43 0 60 59 57 56 56 62 96