How well all six models matched the 1998-99 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.96786 0.96077 0.96755 11,7,5 1.9048
PR2 0.91607 0.94308 0.95864 10,6,6 2.2095
50T 0.91429 0.95308 0.96232 9,4,6 2.1524
LN2 0.95357 0.95962 0.96690 12,2,6 1.8000
 ZPF 0.98750 0.96962 0.97003 8,14,4 1.8095
MCB 0.86428 0.81385 0.86828 3,5,6 3.8095
OCC 0.89821 0.84923 0.91382 10,4,4 3.0381

Commentary: All models (except for MCB and OCC) predicted where the top 35 teams would appear in the final poll quite accurately this year, given that all five models had SCC-35 values > 0.958! ZP2 had its second highest SCC-35 value ever this year, and the LN2 and ZPF models recorded their third highest value as well. These same five models matched the top 8 teams perfectly, and ZPF recorded the highest SCC-15 value of any model ever, only missing four teams by one place - and the teams who tied for #12, by 'half a place'; it was also fifth smallest average difference for ZPF as well. (ZPF also only missed NIT champion California's final ranking by one spot, with the other six models being off by one of the values in the 2 through 6 range.) The ZP2 and LN2 model's average differences were their fifth and sixth lowest ever, but the MCB model only matched 14 teams within two ranks of their actual positions - which is its lowest such overall total seen so far.

OCC had trouble with the two unranked teams (Oklahoma and Missouri State) that won two NCAA tournament games; it was off by 11 places for the Sooners, and 5 for State, the former significantly impacting the SCC-25 value for the OCC model.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
Connecticut 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
Duke 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 1 2
MichiganSt 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
OhioSt 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4
StJohn's 5T 3 5 5 5 5 5 8 5
Kentucky 5T 3 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
Auburn 7 2 7 7 7 7 7 4 6
Maryland 8 2 8 8 8 8 8 6 8
Stanford 9 1 10 12 12 10 10 11 12
Utah 10 1 9 11 11 9 9 13 10
Cincinnati 11 1 13 13 13 13 11 12 13
MiamiFL 12T 1 14 14 14 14 12 15 16
Gonzaga 12T 3 12 10 10 11 13 9 11
Temple 14 3 11 9 9 12 15 10 9
Iowa 15 2 15 15 15 15 16 16 14
Arizona 16 0 17 18 17 16 14 25 21
Florida 17 2 16 16 16 17 19 14 15
NorthCarolina 18 0 22 23 21 19 17 29 25
Oklahoma 19 2 21 21 22 22 24 19 30
MiamiOH 20 2 18 17 18 20 22 17 20
UCLA 21 0 25 25 24 24 18 33 28
Purdue 22 2 19 19 19 18 21 22 17
Kansas 23 1 27 27 27 28 28 21 22
MissouriSt 24 2 20 20 20 21 23 18 29
Arkansas 25 1 24 24 25 25 26 27 19
Indiana 26 1 23 22 23 23 20 20 18
OklahomaSt 27 1 31 32 32 32 32 31 27
Wisconsin 28 0 30 30 30 27 27 30 33
Charlotte 29 1 29 28 31 31 31 34 26
ColCharleston 30 0 28 29 28 26 25 36 32
NewMexico 31 1 35 36 36 29 29 35 23
Detroit 32 1 33 34 34 34 35 28 34
California 33 "5" 36 31 29 40 34 38 39
Texas 34T 0 44 44 43 39 40 53 38
Syracuse 34T 0 39 39 39 38 39 37 36
Creighton 34T 1 32 33 33 33 33 26 31
Tennessee 37 1 26 26 26 30 30 23 24
Louisville 38T 0 40 40 40 42 42 40 41
WeberSt 38T 1 38 38 38 36 37 41 37
MurraySt 38T 0 51 51 49 43 43 43 42
Minnesota 41T 0 41 41 41 45 45 46 46
NewMexicoSt 41T 0 62 60 59 50 50 70 56
Clemson 43 "4" 45 43 47 41 41 47 40
Missouri 44 0 42 42 42 44 44 42 47