How well all six models matched the 1992-93 final coaches' poll.

Table explanation: The Spearman Correlation Coefficients (SCC) below relate to how well the top 15, 25 and 35 teams, in the final coaches' poll, match with the predictions for the models listed. The '0,1,2' column contains how many top 35 team rankings were only off by 0, 1, or 2 places, and this is followed by the average deviation between the actual ranking and the prediction. ("X" in the large table at the bottom represents the number of wins in the NIT tournament that a team earned.)

SCC15 SCC25 SCC35 0,1,2 Average
ZP2 0.91071 0.94231 0.91589 12,2,9 2.1429
PR2 0.88929 0.94692 0.91786 10,7,5 2.4571
50T 0.88929 0.93269 0.91870 11,7,5 2.3714
LN2 0.90714 0.85731 0.91436 10,5,7 2.6571
 ZPF 0.94821 0.89231 0.92962 10,4,7 2.5429
MCB 0.94286 0.93808 0.90357 8,11,6 2.7143
OCC 0.88393 0.91346 0.88039 4,13,3 3.0000

Commentary: The first year of the final coaches' poll (since 1975) exposed some very disparate prediction behavior for the six models included on this page. This was a strong year for MCB (its 4th best SCC-25 value, 7th best SCC-35 value, along with the 6th best average difference) whereas this is the lowest SCC-25 value, and third highest overall average difference for LN2. The 50T model was only a little below its average performance, across most of the metrics in the table above, and ZP2 was slightly more below its average performance (than the 50T model was).

Most of the models didn't rank NIT runner-up Georgetown as highly as the coaches did, but PR2 did have NIT champion Minnesota ranked exactly (as the #25 team); MCB was off by 1, 50T by 2, ZP2 by 3, and the other three were 7, 10 and 13 places away, respectively. This year was MCB's strongest showing when compared with the 50T, LN2, and ZPF; they all performed poorly in 1994-95, and only in 2003-04, and 2007-08, was MCB's overall average difference smaller than one other model's average. Highlighting MCB's proficiency this year are its perfect matches for #9 Duke, #11 Seton Hall, #18 Virginia, #23 Xavier and #30 St. John's. (MCB was also quite close with NIT champion #25 Minnesota.) ZP2, PR2, 50T and MCB predicted #14 Wake Forest close to where they were ranked, and MCB was too generous ranking #16 Western Kentucky.

TeamName Poll Wins ZP2 PR2 50T LN2 ZPF MCB OCC
NorthCarolina 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Michigan 2 5 2 2 2 2 2 3 2
Kentucky 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3
Kansas 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
Indiana 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Cincinnati 6 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
FloridaSt 7 3 7 7 7 7 7 8 7
Vanderbilt 8 2 8 8 8 8 8 7 8
Duke 9 1 12 13 13 14 11 9 14
Arkansas 10 2 10 11 11 13 13 12 9
SetonHall 11 1 9 10 10 9 9 11 10
Arizona 12 0 14 14 14 12 10 14 16
Temple 13 3 13 9 9 10 14 17 13
WakeForest 14 2 15 15 15 22 22 13 12
Louisville 15 2 11 12 12 11 12 16 11
Wkentucky 16 2 16 16 16 17 19 10 17
California 17 2 20 20 20 20 20 19 20
Virginia 18 2 18 17 17 15 16 18 15
Iowa 19 1 17 18 18 16 15 15 18
Utah 20 1 22 22 22 18 17 22 19
GWashington 21 2 21 21 21 21 21 21 24
Massachusetts 22 1 19 19 19 19 18 20 21
Xavier 23 1 25 25 27 26 26 23 25
UCLA 24 1 31 30 31 29 30 32 29
Minnesota 25 "5" 28 26 23 38 33 26 35
OklahomaSt 26T 1 23 23 24 23 24 24 22
NewMexicoSt 26T 1 24 24 26 24 25 31 23
GeorgiaTech 28 0 30 31 29 31 29 43 31
NewOrleans 29 0 26 28 25 25 23 27 30
StJohn's 30 1 27 27 28 28 28 30 27
BYU 31 1 29 29 30 30 31 25 32
Tulane 32 1 34 34 34 27 27 33 26
Georgetown 33 "4" 40 40 43 42 41 44 40
Chattanooga 34 0 53 53 51 47 47 45 56
Illinois 35 1 33 33 33 32 32 34 33
BallSt 36 0 61 61 58 43 43 67 47
RhodeIsland 37T 1 32 32 32 33 34 37 37
Purdue 37T 0 35 35 35 37 37 40 34
Marquette 39 0 37 37 37 39 39 29 38
JacksonSt 40 "1" 91 94 92 75 75 92 41
Clemson 41T "1" 73 76 79 81 81 76 63
Nebraska 41T 0 50 49 47 52 52 50 69
Memphis 43 0 41 42 39 45 45 46 49
SantaClara 44 1 39 38 44 35 36 75 43
NewMexico 45T 0 36 36 36 40 40 38 39
UWMilwaukee 45T NI 97 96 98 98 98 77 98