THE WEST AS A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR RUSSIA AND ITS FUTURE

Vladimir Shlapentokh May 25, 1994

Most of the analysts who examine the role which the West has played in assisting Russia reduce their focus to one aspect; foreign economic aid, which is comprised of credit and investment. In reality, the impact of the West on Russia today is much more comprehensive, for practically all crucial aspects of Russian life have been influenced by the West. This has happened not because the West desires to control Russia and wishes to make it a Third World country, although this view is supported by most Russian politicians, including many former democrats. Rather, the major cause of this fundamental fact lies in the enormous technological and economic gap which exists between Russia and the West. During the time in which Russia was a closed society, this gap had only limited impact on Russian history. However, as soon as the Iron Curtain was removed, it was discovered that Russia, due to its Communist legacy, could not withstand the impact which the West had on all facets of its domestic life. This impact has proven to be very controversial in Russia's development, both as a nation and as a state, even if it is considered unavoidable. The consequences of Western influence on Russia contradicted the expectations of Russian democrats and Western politicians. All of these figures believed that the openness which accompanies democracy and a market economy would permit Russia to rapidly overcome its backwardness. Western economic and intellectual aid was viewed as the vehicle for achieving this transformation. It was anticipated that this assistance would quickly transform Russia, in the period of one or two years, into a liberal capitalist country. In fact, the West has played a role in Russia's development which is vastly different from that which had been envisioned by the Russian reformers. Instead of rapidly converting Russia into a successful capitalist system, it has acted as a gigantic magnet which attracts vital resources, both material and intellectual, from Russia. This crucial role of the West in the life of the Russian people is caused by the high levels of political and social instability which exist within Russia today. If Russian society were stable, then the influence of the West in Russian domestic life would be very different and less pronounced than it is now. The West is currently the axis around which Russian life revolves. All major aspects of societal life--the economy, politics, social structure and differentiation, culture, science, education, and morals--are influenced by the West. If this is beneficial or damaging to Russia remains to be seen. The West exerts an impact on Russia at two distinct levels--the macro-level, which is concerned with the economic and political systems in general, and the micro- level, which addresses individual behavior.

THE MACRO LEVEL: THE WEST CREATED A
NEW ENVIRONMENT IN RUSSIA

1. The Russian economy. As soon as Russia became open to the West and the ruble was declared convertible, the development of Russia's economy began to be radically influenced by the world economy.
   a. The Russian economy was defeated in its own market. When Russian firms first encountered the world economy on equal terms, it was quickly revealed that they were unable to compete with foreign corporations in their own domestic market. This occurred despite a highly qualified and cheap labor force and only moderately outdated technology. The rapid decline of the electronic, automotive and agricultural machinery industries was quite astounding. However, much more surprising was the capitulation of Russian agriculture to foreign food producers. In the past it appeared that Russian agriculture, if it was unable to produce enough food, should not be afraid of foreign competition. It did not seem possible for foreign producers to supply enough food for 150 million people at a low marginal cost. However, it turned out that Russian agricultural enterprises now suffer from growing surpluses of their products. Foreign firms currently offer the Russian consumer goods of higher quality at lower prices. Without large state subsidies, combined with the lack of a massive infusion of Western capital, most Russian enterprises cannot function effectively either by old Soviet or by modern standards.
   b. The almost absolute technological bankruptcy. The Russian civil economy now finds itself in a technological coma. Almost any technological innovation in the country is being done in collaboration with Western firms or with equipment purchased abroad. In the Russian media, it is almost impossible to find information about the reconstruction of an enterprise or the production of a new product what was completed with Russian technological capabilities. If one uses these journalistic accounts to judge, the cases in which the industrial-military complex helps advance the technological progress of civil industries are extremely rare.
   c. The dumping of Russian raw material. While objectively destroying the Russian economy, the West is simultaneously a large market for Russian raw materials (oil, tin, aluminum, various ores, gold and other non-ferrous and precious metals, as well as some agricultural raw materials). These materials are often unloaded on the West at extremely low prices. Because these producers keep a majority of the profits for their individual wealth, they are prepared to sell these resources at any price. It is only natural that the production of extracting industries has declined much less than manufacturing industries, for a market for their goods exists.
   d. The import and sale of foreign goods. The second sector of the Russian economy which is prospering due to Western involvement is the import and sale of foreign goods for mass consumption. This sector employs many hundreds of thousands of people, mostly young and often quite educated, and with various professional skills. The "shuttlers", as they are labeled in Russia, travel back and forth to neighboring countries (China, Turkey, and Poland) as well as to Western Europe and the United States to purchase foreign goods and sell them on the Russian market.
   e. The service industry which caters to foreigners. The third sector of the Russian economy which is benefitting from external influence is the service and entertainment industry (hotels, shopping centers, restaurants, casinos and others). The customers catered to by this sector are largely foreigners and "new Russians", who have capitalized on the economic opportunities available in post-Communist Russia and become extremely wealthy in the process.
   f. Banks and exchange offices. The financial institutions which deal with foreign currency are also one of the fastest growing sectors in the Russian economy. This area has attracted a large number of energetic people, most of whom are young with various professional backgrounds and levels of education.
   g. The export of capital abroad: a most important sector of Russia's economy. The fabulous revenue acquired by the "new Russians" due to the export of raw materials, the importation of consumer goods, and serving foreigners inside the country and operations which concern currency exchange are not used for investment in the domestic economy. Instead, these Russians are placing their revenue in Western banks or investing it in real estate in the United States, England, Sweden and other Western countries. As Egor Gaidar mentioned recently in Izvestia, "the foreign savings accounts of Russian citizens and companies now amount to billions of dollars and are growing very fast". According to the calculations of Kommersant, the Russian equivalent of The Wall Street Journal, the annual export of Russian capital abroad is of the same magnitude as the total investment of the Russian enterprises from their own sources.
   h. The complete dependency of the Russian economy on the dollar. With such an uncertain future looming ahead for Russia, the attainment of hard currency has become the major goal of all economic actors. The dollar has become the main measure of economic performance and well being in Russia today. Even more important, it has become the main means of saving in the country. For this reason, many prosperous firms now pay at least a portion of their employees' salaries in dollars. Due to this demand for dollars, work in foreign or joint companies in Russia which allocate their salaries only in dollars are considered the most exclusive, and therefore coveted, positions. The quest for hard currency has even extended to the office of President Boris Yeltsin. Breaking with precedent, he authorized foreign publishing houses, not Russian ones, to publish his new memoirs. As a result of this decision, The Moscow News, a leading Russian weekly, had to translate a chapter of this book from the Dutch in which it was originally published.
2. Science The collapse of Communism has made Russian science very dependent on Western sources of funding. Western grants, from such sources as the Soros Foundation, are a major condition for the survival of numerous leading Russian scientific institutions. At the same time, many hundreds of Russian scholars find temporary work in the scientific centers of the West. In an attempt to remain in the West as long as possible, these scholars accept positions at different colleges and universities each year. Some even change positions at the conclusion of each term.
3. Culture and morals The demise of Communism largely destroyed the existing fabric of Russian cultural life. Such culture has been replaced with a medley of Western cliches. This decline is evident in the Russian film industry. This sector of the economy is in dire need of capital, and therefore is strongly dependent upon Western sponsors. Almost every prominent Russian film director, Eldar Riasanov and Yurii Mamin are just two examples, now make their movies in cooperation with foreign firms. In the literary sphere, this Western influence is also evident, and it is considered to be quite humiliating. The major Russian literary prize, Buker's Prize, is of British origin, since it was financed by a British firm.
4. The intellectual pressure Over the last three years Russia has been inundated with Western experts in all sectors of its domestic life. These experts, even if their knowledge of Russia is naught, dispense their advice to all levels of Russian society. This trend has extended to the realm of foreign policy as well. It was an unbelievable spectacle to witness Henry Kissinger in this role at a recent conference in Moscow, where the topic on the agenda was the establishment of guidelines for Russia's foreign relations. While several recommendations based on the Western experience have proven to be quite valuable, many others are preposterous, for they fail to account for the Russian social and political context as well as cultural traditions. At the same time, the omnipresence of foreign experts arouses strong anger among Russian professionals. They feel humiliated by the inferior role to which they have been relegated.

THE MICRO LEVEL:THE INDIVIDUAL ORIENTATION
TOWARD THE WEST

With a brief overview of the role which the West plays in the different spheres of the Russian society behind us, our attention now turns to the influence which the West has on the mentality and behavior of the Russian individual.

1. The perceptions of the future: catastrophists versus non-catstrophists The crucial role of the West in the life of the Russian people is to a large extent determined by their gloomy views of Russia's future. Of course, the human mind has mechanisms for coping (the adjustment mechanism), which allow people to adapt to virtually any sort of hardship. Thus, the number of Russians who find their life tolerable is increasing, even if the objective indicators do not indicate such improvement. However, most Russians still look at their country's future in pessimistic terms. At best they foresee significant progress only in the distant future. However, no less that one third of all Russians feel certain that their country will face one of a variety of calamities in the near future. Such scenarios include technological disasters, violent regime change and political turmoil, civil war or large scale ethnic conflicts, or total economic collapse. Many believe that one or more of these will occur simultaneously. With such a dismal outlook the formation of two extreme categories can be seen. The first category, termed here as "catastrophists", who are certain that imminent catastrophe is Russia's fate. The catastrophists are further divided among themselves. One group has decided to undertake various actions in the hope of providing for their own salvation and their families. It is for this reason that they have linked their futures to the West. The second group of catastrophists tends to take a fatalistic view on Russia's future as well, but has decided to remain in the country and share in her destiny, regardless of the outcome. The second category which exists along with these "catastrophists" can be called the "non-catastrophists", or moderate optimists. These people believe that a successful transformation of Russia will occur within the next 5 years. The use of a parable clearly demonstrates the division between these two groupings of Russians. It can be said that the Russian people live close to an active volcano and are divided in their opinions about it. One faction believes in the impending eruption and is prepared to leave their village, even if it means that they will be required to live as refugees. The other group hopes that the prognosis of the eruption is false, and that the lava stream will not sweep away their village. Therefore, they are reluctant to expose themselves to the ordeal of an evacuation. In a famous movie, "When Time Ran Out" (1980), the residents of a resort which is located close to a volcano which suddenly became active had to make a difficult decision. They could remain in the hotel or undertake a risky trip inside the island. Russians today are in a similar position as the protagonists of this film. They must choose a strategy which will either link their fate with the West or with their own country. The catastrophic/non-catastrophic vision is, of course, well correlated with the availability of the means which can help people escape the Russian "volcano's" eruption. Russians with large amounts of money, political capital, and good reputations in the West are more inclined to take the danger of volcano eruption seriously. Those who do not meet this criteria tend to dismiss the fears of the others as alarmist and unfounded. For this reason, catastrophists are quite visible. Liberal politicians, nouveau rich, outstanding scholars as well as young professionals, energetic young people even with modest skills generally fall into this category. The non-catastrophists tend to be politicians who belong to the parties which oppose Yeltsin's regime, as well as those millions of Russians who have little or no opportunity to alter their fate.
2. The conduct of the catastrophists The catastrophists have resorted to various means in attempting to avoid the impending catastrophe in their country. These actions range from the most radical (emigration) to the least radical (saving money in dollars).
   a. Emigration. With the collapse of the closed Communist society, the difference in the economic and technological level made the West an attractive region to which one could emigrate. Since 1991, hundreds of thousands of Russians have left their country for the West. For some it was a temporary excursion, while others left Russia forever. The idea of emigration is deeply ingrained in the minds of millions of Russians who are currently graduating from secondary schools and colleges. Some surveys indicate that 60-80 percent of all young people express desire to leave the country for some period of time. Such feelings among young people bodes ill for the future of Russian society. Emigration has lost its former negative connotation and is accepted in Russia as a "normal" way of life. Unfortunately, it is leading to a drain of manpower and intellectual power from the Russian nation.
   b. Temporary jobs. Many thousands of qualified Russians roam the West in search of temporary positions. They travel from city to city, from college to college, from one firm to another in an attempt to postpone their return to their motherland for as long as possible. Almost all of them have now savings accounts in the West, and many of them are seeking a means of remaining in the West permanently.
   c. Children and spouses abroad. Having children in Western colleges and universities, in secondary schools, or in positions with Western firms and institutions is now a way of life for many Russian political and cultural elites. Many of these elites have wives in the West, regardless if these women are employed or not. Over the last two years this phenomenon has been extremely visible. Several politicians and journalists have used it as evidence of the elites' disbelief in the ability to construct a good future for Russia.
   d. The saving accounts and property assets in foreign countries. A growing number of Russian businessmen, managers of state enterprises, and members of the political and cultural elites have savings accounts in foreign banks. In the last year Russians have begun to purchase real estate and other assets in the West. The Russian media is full of information about this amassment of Western holdings by politicians and businessmen. It is impossible to learn how much each individual has invested in the West, but one thing is certain. The acquisition of Western property is an important everyday reality of Russian political life.
   e.. Savings in dollars. Even if the previous activities embrace only a tiny segment of Russian society, the catastrophic attitude in Russia is not limited to these elites. It is true that savings accounts or "savings in stockings" are now universal phenomena in the country. Dollars are the currency of favor in such ventures. Such actions describe the catastrophic mentality of many Russians today.

THE FUTURE: INSTEAD OF CONCLUSION.

The Westernization of Russia as it is now occurring will have several crucial implications for the future of that country and the world. Of course, the impact of the West on the Russian process of transformation depends on several factors. The most important factor which affects this transformation is the political stability and might of the Russian state. If the current political situation, in which a weak state and total criminalization and lawlessness exists, does not change in the next few years, the West will continue to divert important material and intellectual resources from Russia. Such losses are extremely difficult to compensate for, even if the expansion of economic activity of foreign firms continues at the existing level. With this tremendous impact of the West on Russian life, it is not surprising that a strong anti-Western mood is developing in the country. This mood can be traced to three sources: the disappointment of many Russians with the amount of Western economic aid; the realization that Russia has little chance to catch up with the West in the upcoming decades; and the West's diversion of Russian material and labor resources. This disappointment is also fueled by the so called "national bourgeoisie". This group is dissatisfied with foreign competition and opposes the "comprador bourgeoisie", who profit from the export of raw material, the import of consumer goods and speculation with convertible currencies. Vladimir Zhirinovsky's ideology reflects this mood quite adequately, and it is increasing to other parties as well. The conflicts between the various factions of the economic and political establishment are largely due to the level of personal connections with the West. While the members of the current regime have established such connections, the members of the opposition have not usually forged such ties. These antagonisms will have a crucial impact on the political developments which occur in the country. By all accounts, the anti-Western groups are becoming prominent in the Russian establishment. They have gained the support of the Russian masses, especially the older generations. The major supporters of anti-Western attitudes are the catastrophists who cannot (or do not want to) protect themselves with connections to the West. They derive a special satisfaction in their fomenting of anti-Western emotions as they watch, with envy and ire, how their political enemies have provided themselves with safe havens in the West. This paradoxical combination of anti-Western feelings and the immense impact of the West is one of the most specific features of Russia today. Many people despise the West and curse it, but benefit by their exposure to its wealth. These love-hate attitudes towards the West will make the relations between Russia and the West extremely unstable in the upcoming years. Among the possible scenarios which can be expected are a military coup with blatant anti-Western slogans. Such an action would cause immediate deterioration within the international arena. In any case, American politicians must recognize that Russia is brimming with conflicting emotions towards the West. These opposing attitudes will be a source of instability in the relations between Russia and the West for many years to come.