How to keep score on election night

This map and the explanations may help you to follow this historic election, hour by hour.   Print this out in color, if possible. If you'd like to see a number of predictive models, click here.

Presidential Map

This map has Obama’s likely wins in blue and McCain’s likely wins in red. Toss-up states are in gray. I've defined toss-ups the same way as Real Clear Politics does, except that I've also included two states in which Obama has less than 51 percent, according to polls: New Mexico and Nevada; I have kept Colorado blue because the latest poll has him above 51%. If most of the undecided voters break to McCain, a real possibility, Obama should still get most or all of the blue states on the below map. This map gives Obama 268 electoral votes. If Obama takes any of the 12 toss-up states while keeping his own blue states, he wins (one needs 270 electoral votes to win). If McCain sweeps the red states and captures all of the toss-ups, he wins. This all shows that Obama is heavily favored, but the only poll that counts is the election. That’s why we’re watching television and logging on Tuesday night.

The 12 toss-ups are also listed below in bold, along with their closing times.  The networks typically call states that aren't close a couple of minutes after the polls close. Note, however, that record voter turnout could keep polls open later.  

Toss-up states, in order of closing time (all times are ET)
Score for yourself:      Obama McCain
Indiana (6-7 p.m.)       _____ _____
Georgia  (7 p.m.)         _____ _____
Virginia  (7 p.m.)         _____ _____
N. C. (7:30 p.m.)        _____ _____
Ohio (7:30 p.m.)         _____ _____ 
Florida (8 p.m.)           _____ _____
Missouri (8 p.m.)         _____ _____
New Mexico (9 p.m.)    _____ _____
Arizona (9 p.m.)          _____ _____
Montana (10 p.m.)       _____ _____
North Dakota (10 p.m.) _____ _____
Nevada  (10 p.m.)       _____ _____
Obama likely needs one of these states, McCain all 12 (see additional notes, below)

The House
As you may know, the entire House is up for election every two years. Because there are so many seats, it's difficult to keep track. The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats, who have a sizeable majority, will gain many seats. You can read more here.  The Senate, which elects its members for six years (roughly a third of its body is up for election every two years), is more interesting this time around. Here's why:

Senate List

The Senate Democrats, who now have a 51-49 majority (including the two independents who caucus with them), will most likely end the evening with 57 to 60 seats. If the number of Democrats is 60 or higher (unlikely but possible), the Democrats will have a near-lock on the Senate, based on Senate rules. Right now, 35 seats are up for grabs. This might sound like you’ll need to follow a lot of races, but here’s a simple way of looking at it: Most of these are not really competitive; like in the Presidential race, 12 Senate races are important to watch. They all have Republican incumbents. Four, listed below, are likely pickups for the Democrats and these would most likely give them 55 seats. There are eight more close races worth watching, all possible pickups for Democrats, listed below.  

Republican Senate seats in Play    Probable # of Dem. Seats

Likely for Dems to pickup Rep. seats:

New Hampshire (7 p.m.)                  52

Virginia (7 p.m.)                             53

Colorado (9 p.m.)                           54

New Mexico (9 p.m.)                       55

Toss-ups

Kentucky (6-7 p.m.)                        Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Georgia (7 p.m.)                             Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

North Carolina (7:30 p.m.)                Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Mississippi (8 p.m.)                          Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Minnesota (9 p.m.)                          Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Texas (9 p.m.)                                Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Oregon (11 p.m.)                             Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

Alaska (midnight)                             Fill it in yourself: if the Dem wins add 1 to 55______

For more on Senate races see http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and click on “Senate” at the top of the page.

Important notes about the presidential and senate races

This election guide was prepared by Dave the Teacher, a journalism professor at Saint Michael's College and a political junkie.

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