Here are seven ways of looking at where the Obama-McCain race stands this week:

November 2, 2008

1. Real Clear Politics: Obama 291, McCain 132, Toss-up 115   RCP averages polls going back a week or two.

2. Real Clear Politics national poll average: Obama +6.7 

3. Electoral-Vote: Obama 364, McCain 171, Tie 3 (This site favors the very latest polls and is thus more current but more volatile than RCP.)

4. InTrade: Obama 353, McCain 185  (this is where the gamblers put their money where their minds are; these bets tend to be very accurate).

5. Bradley effect: Obama 311, McCain 227 (The theory of the Bradley effect posits that white voters sometimes lie about their willingness to vote for people of color, skewing the polls; if we subtract five percent from the Electoral-vote totals by taking away the close states, the picture changes substantially. That said, the Bradley effect seems to be diminishing lately)

6. Modified Bradley: Among those who don't believe in the Bradley effect, some believe that the undecideds will break toward McCain.  If you go to Real Clear Politics and look for only the states that Obama is ahead in the polls by 50.5 percent or more, thus giving all the undecideds to McCain, he still wins, capturing 281 votes (including Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia, but not Florida or Ohio). 

7. My election night program uses #6 ("Modified Bradley") as a starting point, assuming that any state in which Obama has captured at least 50.5 percent of the state poll is relatively safe (he could still win if the undecideds break for McCain). But the map also suggests that Obama might win big if his strengths (early voting, the youth vote, the African-American vote, Obama's sophisticated get-out-the-vote machine) come through on Tuesday. Here's my election night program.

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