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Chaos
and the Mathematics of Prediction: Hurricane Katrina, Harry
Potter, and Happiness
For centuries,
scientists have developed increasingly sophisticated
mathematical models in an attempt to uncover the rules by
which the physical world evolves. Their ultimate goal is not
only to understand the nature of the systems they observe,
but to predict how they will behave in the future. The
modern computer has enabled vast improvements in many (but
not all) of the predictions made using mathematical models,
and the internet has broadened their scope to include social
behavior. In this talk, we discuss the implications and
mathematics underlying prediction of the following:
longitude while sailing across the Atlantic in the 1600's,
how long your flight will be delayed, the path of Hurricane
Katrina, the Earth's climate in 2100, the next big
entertainment hit, and emotional well being in the instant
messaging era.
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